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    长白山地区采暖度日特征分析

    Characteristics of heating degree days in the Changbai Mountains

    • 摘要: 利用1961-2014年长白山区域29个气象站逐日平均气温资料和RegCM4模式模拟的2010-2059年日平均气温资料,分析了长白山地区采暖度日的时空变化特征及未来变化趋势。结果表明:1961-2014年长白山地区年平均采暖度日较大,为4311.8-5723.7℃·d之间,其分布特点为北部地区采暖度日高、南部地区采暖度日低。1961-2014年长白山年采暖度日呈显著下降的趋势,1985年为采暖度日突变年,1989-2009年采暖度日减少最明显,2010年后采暖度日略增加。长白山地区年采暖度日与年平均气温呈显著的负相关关系,预估RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下2010-2059年长白山地区气温升高,采暖度日将趋于减少。

       

      Abstract: Based on the daily mean temperature data from 29 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2014 and RegCM4 (Regional Climate Model 4) model data from 2010 to 2059 in the Changbai Mountains,annual heating degree days were calculated,its spatio-temporal variation characteristics were analyzed,and the relationships between heating degree days and annual mean temperatures were investigated.The results show that the value of annual heating degree days in the Changbai Mountains is high and fluctuates in a range of 4311.8-5723.7℃·d.The value of annual heating degree days is higher in the northern part and lower in the southern part of the Changbai Mountains.The value of annual heating degree days tends to decrease since 1961,especially since 1989 to 2009.From 2010,it tends to increase slightly again.There is a clear negative relationship between the value of heating degree days and annual mean temperature.Under RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios,it is expected that heating degree days would decrease with increasing in temperature from 2010 to 2059.

       

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