主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (6): 130-136.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2016.06.017

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

沈阳地区日光温室内最低气温变化特征及其预报模型研究

李石1, 张菁1, 张淑杰2, 宋晓巍1, 慕臣英1, 徐全辉1, 郑闯1, 刘青1   

  1. 1. 沈阳市气象局, 辽宁 沈阳 110168;
    2. 中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所, 辽宁 沈阳 110166
  • 收稿日期:2016-06-16 修回日期:2016-09-08 出版日期:2016-12-31 发布日期:2016-12-31
  • 作者简介:李石,女,1982年生,工程师,主要从事应用气象研究,E-mail:leestone0229@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    公益性行业（气象）科研专项“东北设施农业生产专业天气预报关键技术研究”（GYHY20120624）资助。

Variation characteristics and forecasting models of the minimum temperature in solar greenhouse in Shenyang

LI Shi1, ZHANG Jing1, ZHANG Shu-jie2, SONG Xiao-wei1, MU Chen-ying1, XU Quan-hui1, ZHENG Chuang1, LIU Qing1   

  1. 1. Shenyang Meteorological Service, Shenyang 110168, China;
    2. Institute of Atmospheric Environment, China Meteorological Administration, Shenyang 110166, China
  • Received:2016-06-16 Revised:2016-09-08 Online:2016-12-31 Published:2016-12-31

PDF (PC)

568

被引次数

2

摘要： 利用2013-2014年沈阳地区日光温室内和温室外的气象观测资料，采用相关分析和逐步回归分析方法对日光温室内最低气温的变化特征及其预报模型进行了研究。结果表明：2013-2014年沈阳地区日光温室内最低气温与温室外的前一日最高气温、前一日最低气温、当日最低气温及温室内前一日最高气温、前一日最低气温相关显著。沈阳地区四季不同天气条件日光温室内最低气温的预报模型存在一定的差异，冬季日光温室内最低气温模型的预报准确率较高，春季次之，秋季再次之，夏季日光温室内最低气温模型的预报效果较差，冬季、春季、秋季、夏季日光温室内日最低气温≤3.0℃的预报准确率分别为91%、85%、81%和79%；雨雪天日光温室内最低气温的预报准确率较高，阴天次之，晴天再次之，多云天日光温室内最低气温的预报准确率较低，雨雪天、阴天、晴天、多云天日光温室内日最低气温≤3.0℃的预报准确率分别为90%、87%、83%和77%。可见，本文建立的沈阳地区日光温室内最低气温模型的预报效果较好，可为沈阳地区中高档钢架砖混结构日光温室内最低气温的预报提供参考，具有较强的实用性。

关键词: 日光温室, 最低气温, 天气类型, 相关分析, 逐步回归

Abstract: Based on the meteorological observation data inside and outside solar greenhouse from 2013 to 2014 in Shenyang,variation characteristics and forecasting models of the minimum temperature (Tmin) in greenhouse were studied using methods of a correlation analysis and a stepwise regression analysis.The results show that Tmin inside the greenhouse is significantly correlated with the previous day's maximum and minimum temperature outside the greenhouse,Tmin outside the greenhouse of the day,and the previous day's maximum and minimum temperature inside the greenhouse.Tmin forecasting models for the greenhouse are different depending on different weather types of the four seasons.Forecasting accuracy of the greenhouse Tmin is the highest in winter,followed in spring and autumn,and the forecasting accuracy in summer is relatively worse.The differences between observed and simulated greenhouse Tmin less than 3℃ in winter,spring,autumn,and summer account for 91%,85%,81% and 79%,respectively of the total samples for test.Forecasting accuracy of greenhouse Tmin is the highest in snowy rain days,followed in overcast days and sunny days,and the forecasting accuracy in cloudy days is relatively worse.The model accuracies for the simulated greenhouse Tmin less than 3℃ in snowy rain days,overcast days,sunny days,cloudy days are 90%,87%,83% and 77%,respectively.The results suggest the performance of the greenhouse Tmin forecasting model is satisfied and the models have their practical applicability,which provides a reference for the greenhouse Tmin forecast in Shenyang.

Key words: Solar greenhouse, The minimum temperature, Weather types, Correlation analysis, Stepwise regression analysis

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