Abstract:
Based on the meteorological observation data inside and outside solar greenhouse from 2013 to 2014 in Shenyang,variation characteristics and forecasting models of the minimum temperature (
Tmin) in greenhouse were studied using methods of a correlation analysis and a stepwise regression analysis.The results show that
Tmin inside the greenhouse is significantly correlated with the previous day's maximum and minimum temperature outside the greenhouse,
Tmin outside the greenhouse of the day,and the previous day's maximum and minimum temperature inside the greenhouse.
Tmin forecasting models for the greenhouse are different depending on different weather types of the four seasons.Forecasting accuracy of the greenhouse
Tmin is the highest in winter,followed in spring and autumn,and the forecasting accuracy in summer is relatively worse.The differences between observed and simulated greenhouse
Tmin less than 3℃ in winter,spring,autumn,and summer account for 91%,85%,81% and 79%,respectively of the total samples for test.Forecasting accuracy of greenhouse
Tmin is the highest in snowy rain days,followed in overcast days and sunny days,and the forecasting accuracy in cloudy days is relatively worse.The model accuracies for the simulated greenhouse
Tmin less than 3℃ in snowy rain days,overcast days,sunny days,cloudy days are 90%,87%,83% and 77%,respectively.The results suggest the performance of the greenhouse
Tmin forecasting model is satisfied and the models have their practical applicability,which provides a reference for the greenhouse
Tmin forecast in Shenyang.