主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (5): 108-112.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2017.05.015

• 快报 • 上一篇    

青岛市崂山地区樱桃产量预报方法研究

刘春涛1, 慕臣英2, 李德萍3, 郭灿1, 朱俊翰1   

  1. 1. 崂山区气象局, 山东 崂山 266102;
    2. 沈阳市气象局, 辽宁 沈阳 110168;
    3. 青岛市气象局, 山东 青岛 266003
  • 收稿日期:2017-02-20 修回日期:2017-04-21 出版日期:2017-10-30 发布日期:2017-10-30
  • 作者简介:刘春涛,男,1970年生,工程师,主要从事农业气象方面研究,E-mail:lct011@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    青岛市气象局业务短平快项目（2015qdqxd04）资助。

Study on forecast method of Cherry yield in Laoshan District of Qingdao

LIU Chun-tao1, MU Chen-ying2, LI De-ping3, GUO Can1, ZHU Jun-han1   

  1. 1. Meteorological Service in Laoshan District of Qingdao, Laoshan 266102, China;
    2. Shenyang Meteorological Service, Shenyang 110168, China;
    3. Qingdao Meteorological Service, Qingdao 266003, China
  • Received:2017-02-20 Revised:2017-04-21 Online:2017-10-30 Published:2017-10-30

PDF (PC)

255

摘要： 基于2000-2016年青岛市崂山地区樱桃产量资料和气象观测资料，利用全国农业气象产量预报业务系统（WAPFOS 2015.1.0版本），分析影响崂山地区樱桃产量形成的关键气象因子，建立崂山地区樱桃产量预报模型。基于2000-2014年樱桃产量资料进行樱桃趋势产量和气象产量分离，建立崂山地区樱桃趋势产量和气象产量预报的回归模型，并利用2015-2016年樱桃产量资料对模型进行试报检验。结果表明：2000-2014年崂山地区樱桃产量预报模型平均预报准确率达96.98%，2015年和2016年樱桃产量预报准确率分别为95.94%、96.80%，模型反映影响崂山地区樱桃产量的主要气象因子为3月上中旬平均最低气温、3月中下旬降雨量、4月上旬降雨量和4月中旬平均最低气温。崂山地区樱桃产量歉年3月上中旬平均最低气温低于-5.0℃，3月中下旬降雨量大于15.0 mm，4月上旬降雨量小于5.0 mm；丰年3月上中旬平均最低气温大于-3.0℃，3月中下旬降雨量小于5.0 mm，4月上旬降雨量大于15.0 mm。

关键词: 樱桃, 气象因子, 趋势产量, 气象产量, 预报

Abstract: Based on the meteorological and cherry yield data in Laoshan area of Qingdao from 2000 to 2016,the key meteorological factors affecting cherry yield were investigated and the cherry yield forecasting model was estimated using the operational system on agrometeorological yield forecasting(WAPFOS 2015.1.0).More specifically,based on the separated trend and meteorological yields from the cherry yield data in Laoshan area from 2000 to 2014,the trend and meteorological yield forecast model for cherry was established by using grey smoothing simulation,polynomials and stepwise regression methods and the prediction test of the model was carried out with the data from 2015 to 2016.The results show that the accuracies of the cherry yield forecast model are,on average 96.98% during 2000-2014,95.94% in 2015,and 96.80% in 2016,respectively.According to the established model,the determined key meteorological factors affecting cherry yield are the average minimum temperature in early to mid-March,the precipitations in mid-to-late March and in early April and the average minimum temperature in the middle April.Besides,the research indicates that the average minimum temperature in early to mid-March is below -5.0℃,precipitation in mid-to-late March and early April is respectively larger than 15.0 mm and less than 5.0 mm in lean year,while the average minimum temperature in early to mid-March is above -3.0℃,precipitation in mid-to-late March and early April is respectively less than 5.0 mm and larger than 15.0 mm in abundant year.

Key words: Cherry, Meteorological factors, Trend yield, Meteorological yield, Forecast

中图分类号: