主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (3): 28-36.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2018.03.004

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

长江中下游地区持续性暴雨年代际变化特征及环流形势

刘蕾1, 周晶2, 刘俊杰3, 高辉4   

  1. 1. 芜湖市气象局, 安徽 芜湖 241000;
    2. 江苏省气象局, 江苏 南京 210008;
    3. 安徽省气候中心, 安徽 合肥 230031;
    4. 东部战区空军气象中心, 江苏 南京 210018
  • 收稿日期:2017-06-22 修回日期:2017-11-17 出版日期:2018-06-30 发布日期:2018-06-30
  • 作者简介:刘蕾,女,1986年生,工程师,主要从事天气气候研究,E-mail:njxxgcdxll@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金（41505049）、江苏省气象学会青年科研基金项目（KQ201818）和安徽省气象局新技术集成项目（AHXJ201702）共同资助。

Decadal characteristics of persistent heavy precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and its circulation pattern

LIU Lei1, ZHOU Jing2, LIU Jun-jie3, GAO Hui4   

  1. 1. Wuhu Meteorological Service, Wuhu 241000, China;
    2. Jiangsu Meteorological Service, Nanjing 210008, China;
    3. Anhui Climate Center, Hefei 230031, China;
    4. Air Force Meteorological Center of Eastern Theater, Nanjing 210018, China
  • Received:2017-06-22 Revised:2017-11-17 Online:2018-06-30 Published:2018-06-30

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摘要： 利用1965-2016年长江中下游地区逐日降水数据和美国气象环境预报中心/美国国家大气研究中心（National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research，NCEP/NCAR）逐日再分析资料，从年代际变化的角度对长江中下游地区持续性暴雨及环流特征差异进行了分析。结果表明：1965-2016年长江中下游地区持续性暴雨主要集中出现在6月下旬至7月上旬，此时段内持续性暴雨发生频次与夏季持续性暴雨的年代际变化一致，均呈现先增多后减少的特征，1989-2003年为长江中下游地区持续性暴雨频发年代。对长江中下游地区持续性暴雨少发、频发年代的环流特征分析发现，1965-1988年高纬度地区气流平直，冷空气不活跃，而低纬副热带高压明显偏弱，导致南海水汽输送较弱，可降水量偏少，对流运动偏弱；2004-2015年500 hPa位势高度场上高纬度地区呈西高东低的特征，冷空气输送能力较弱，同时孟加拉湾低槽偏弱，副热带高压虽然偏强但位置偏南，水汽无法远距离输送至长江地区，可降水量也异常偏少；1989-2003年虽然为持续性暴雨频发年代，但其中无持续性暴雨年份与持续性暴雨频发年份的环流配置则完全相反，持续性暴雨频发年鄂霍次克海高压明显偏强，冷空气活跃，低纬副热带高压偏强偏西，其西北侧的水汽可以源源不断输送至长江中下游地区，造成可降水量异常偏多，冷暖空气的交汇则使垂直运动旺盛。可见，长江中下游地区持续性暴雨年代际变化与大尺度环流的年代际变化密切相关。

关键词: 长江中下游地区, 持续性暴雨, 可降水量, 副热带高压, 大尺度环流

Abstract: Based on the daily rainfall data of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis data from 1965 to 2016,the decadal change of the persistent heavy precipitation (PHP) and its circulation feature were analyzed.Results show that the peak stage of the PHP during the summer season is from June 21 to July 10.The frequency of the PHP in this period shows a similar decadal change with that in whole summer.The frequency of the PHP increases first and then decreases from 2004 to 2015.The high frequency of PHP events occur during 1989-2003.The circulation characteristics are different for the low and high frequency periods.During the period of 1965-1988,the airflow is straightness in the high-latitude region and the cold air is not active.Meanwhile,the Western North Pacific High (WNPH) is weak.It results in a weak transportation of water vapor.The perceptible water is less than the normal level and the vertical velocity is weak as well.During the period of 2004-2015,the high-latitude circulation field shows a pattern that is high in the west and low in the east at 500 hPa geopotential height.The transportation of the cold air is weak,and the Bay of Bengal trough is not strong.The WNPH is strong but located southward,so the water vapor is difficult to be transported far away to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.The preciptible water is less than the normal level as well.The high frequency of PHP exists in the period of 1989-2003,but the circulation patterns are completely opposite between the yeas with high frequency PHP and years without PHP.The high of Okhotsk Sea is strong during the frequent PHP year,and the cold air is active.The WNPH is strong and shifts westward,which enhances the water vapor transporting into the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from its northwest side.Its preciptible water is sufficient.The cold and warm air intersection makes the vertical motion energetic.So,the decadal change of the PHP in this region is closely related to that of the large-scale circulation.

Key words: Middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, Persistent heavy precipitation, Perceptible water, Subtropical High, Large-scale circulation

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