主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (4): 26-35.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2018.04.004

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

CLIGEN天气发生器模拟沈阳地区降水的适用性评价

宋晓巍1   李琳琳2   张琳3   刘青1  李石1   慕臣英1   张菁1   

  1. 1. 沈阳市气象局，辽宁 沈阳110168；2. 辽宁省气象局气象科学研究所，辽宁 沈阳 110166；3.辽阳县气象局，辽宁 辽阳 111299
  • 收稿日期:2017-04-07 修回日期:2017-06-30 出版日期:2018-08-31 发布日期:2018-09-03

Adaptability evaluation of the CLIGEN model generated precipitation in Shenyang region

SONG Xiao-wei1  LI Lin-lin2  ZHANG Lin3  LIU Qing1  LI Shi1  MU Chen-ying1  ZHANG Jing1   

  1. 1. Shenyang Meteorological Service Shenyang 110168, China; 2. Liaoning Institute of Meteorological Sciences 110166, China; 3. Liaoyang county Meteorological Service Liaoyang 111299, China
  • Received:2017-04-07 Revised:2017-06-30 Online:2018-08-31 Published:2018-09-03

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摘要：

CLIGEN（Climate Generator）天气发生器是土壤侵蚀模型（Water Erosion Prediction Project，WEPP）中的一个组成部分，主要用于模型提供长序列的逐日气象数据，从而解决实际气象资料数据中序列较短或缺失的问题。GLIGEN在位于中国东北的沈阳地区是否适用，未进行评价。本文利用1981—2015年沈阳地区7个气象站的日观测数据，通过CLIGEN天气发生模拟沈阳地区日降水序列数据，并统计模拟与实测的日降水量、月降水量、年降水量及年最大日降水量，利用平均值、标准差、偏度及峰度对CLIGEN天气发生器模拟的沈阳地区降水进行适用性评价。结果表明：CLIGEN天气发生器对沈阳地区日降水量、月降水量和年降水量平均值的模拟效果较好，模拟降水量的平均相对误差绝对值（Mean Absolute Relative Error，MARE）分别为2.1%、1.3%、3.3%，年最大日降水量的模拟精度稍差。对于降水最大值方面，CLIGEN天气发生器对沈阳地区日最大降水量和年最大降水量的模拟效果较差，模拟的日最大降水量和年最大降水量相对误差的最大值分别达-27.2%、18.3%。GLIGEN天气发生器能较好的模拟沈阳地区的月降水量和年降水量，t检验、F检验和k-s检验均表明，模拟的日最大降水量与年最大日降水量仅康平站达到极显著水平。从总体模拟效果来看，CLIGEN天气发生器能较好的模拟沈阳地区平均降水的统计特征。

关键词: 天气发生器, CLIGEN, 降水, 插值, 检验

Abstract:

The CLIGEN (Climate GENerator) weather generator is a part of the WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) soil erosion model. It is mainly used to provide the daily meteorological data for a long sequence, thus to solve the problems of the shortage of actual metrological sequence or missing values. However, the adaptation of the CLIGEN model in Shenyang region of Northeast China needs to  be tested. In this paper, using daily station weather data in Shenyang from 1981 to 2001, the daily precipitation data were generated by the CLIGEN model. The daily, monthly, annual, and annual maximum daily precipitation of simulated and measured values were compared. The applicability of the model was evaluated using mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis statistic data. The results show that the CLIGEN model generates  better simulation results for daily, monthly and annual precipitation amounts, The MARE (Mean Absolute Relative Error) is 2.1%,1.3%, and 3.3%, respectively. However, the simulation accuracy of annual maximum precipitation amount is slightly worse. As for the extreme values in precipitation, the simulation results of daily and annual maximum precipitation amounts are not good. The maximum error of daily and annual maximum precipitation amounts reaches to -27.2% and 18.3%, respectively. The CLIGEN model can better simulate the monthly and annual precipitation. Based on t, F and K-S tests, it indicates that only Kangping station reaches the very significant level in the daily and annual maximum daily precipitation amounts. In general, the CLIGEN model can better simulate the statistical characteristics of precipitation in Shenyang region.

Key words: Weather generator, CLIGEN, Precipitation, Interpolation, Test

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