[1] 黄世成,杨秋明,李熠.基于时变关键区和时滞多变量的长江下游10~30 d低频降水实时预报[J].科学技术与工程,2014,14(22):1-6. [2] 马浩,毛燕军,雷媛,等.10-30 d延伸期天气预报研究进展综述[J].干旱气象,2012,30(4):514-521. [3] 周德平,陈力强,李辑.动力延伸预报产品在辽宁短期气候预测中的释用[J].气象与环境学报2006,22(6):11-15. [4] 金荣花,马杰,毕宝贵.10-30 d延伸期预报研究进展和业务现状[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2010,4(2):1-5. [5] 丑纪范.短期气候预测的现状问题与出路(一)[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2003,1(1):1-4. [6] 杨秋明.10-30 d延伸期天气预报方法研究进展与展望[J].地球科学进展,2015,30(9):970-984. [7] 杨玮,何金海,孙国武,等.低频环流系统的一种统计预报方法[J].气象与环境学报,2011,27(3):1-5. [8] Hsu P-C,Li T,You L,et al.A spatial-temporal projection model for 10-30day rainfall forecast in South China[J].Climate Dynamics,2015,44(5-6):1227-1244. [9] 李恺心,姜晓艳模糊综合评价在汛期(6-8月)降水趋势预报中的应用[J].气象与环境学报,1990,6(2):13-15. [10] 梁萍,丁一汇.基于季节内振荡的延伸预报试验[J].大气科学,2012,36(1):102-116. [11] 孙国武,李震坤,信飞,等.延伸期天气过程预报的一种新方法-低频天气图[J].大气科学,2013,37(4):945-954. [12] Borah N,Sahai A K,Chattopadhyay R,et al.A self-organizing map-based ensemble forecast system for extended range prediction of active/break cycles of Indian summer monsoon[J].Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013,118(16):9022-9034. [13] 杨秋明.基于20-30 d振荡的长江下游地区夏季低频降水延伸期预报方法研究[J].气象学报,2014,72(3):494-507. [14] 杨秋明.2013年初夏长江下游降水低频分量延伸期预报的多变量时滞回归模型[J].气象,2015,41(7):881-889. [15] Wheeler MC,Hendon HH.An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index:development of an index for monitoring and prediction[J].Monthly Weather Review,2004,132(8):1917-1932. [16] Mo KC.Adaptive filtering and prediction of intraseasonal oscillations[J].Monthly Weather Review,2001,129(4):802-817. [17] Love BS,Matthews A.Real-time localised forecasting of the Madden-Julian Oscillation using neural network models[J].Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,2009,135(643):1471-1483. [18] Jones C,Carvalho LMV,Higgins W,et al.A statistical forecast model of tropical intraseasonal convective anomalies[J].Journal of Climate,2004,17(11):2078-2095. [19] Maharaj EA,Wheeler MC.Forecasting an index of the Madden-oscillation[J].International Journal of Climatology,2005,25(12):1611-1618. [20] Jiang XA,Waliser DE,Wheeler MC,et al.Assessing the skill of an all-season statistical forecast model for the Madden-Julian Oscillation[J].Monthly Weather Review,2008,136(6):1940-1956. [21] Seo K-H,Wang WQ,Gottschalck J,et al.Evaluation of MJO forecast skill from several statistical and dynamical forecast models[J].Journal of Climate,2009,22(9):2372-2388. [22] Kondrashov D,Chekroun MD,Robertson A W,et al.Low-order stochastic model and "past-noise forecasting" of the Madden-Julian Oscillation[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2013,40(19):5305-5310. [23] Cavanaugh N R,Allen T,Subramanian A,et al.The skill of atmospheric linear inverse models in hindcasting the Madden-Julian Oscillation[J].Climate Dynamics,2014,44(3-4):897-906. [24] 丁一汇,梁萍.基于MJO的延伸预报[J].气象,2010,36(7):111-122. [25] 黄海燕,何金海,朱志伟.大气季节内振荡的研究进展及其在延伸期预报中的应用[J].气象与减灾研究,2011,34(3):1-8. [26] 陈官军,魏凤英.基于低频振荡特征的夏季江淮持续性降水延伸期预报方法[J].大气科学,2012,36(3):633-644. [27] 万日金,王同美,吴国雄.江南春雨和南海副热带高压的时间演变及其与东亚夏季风环流和降水的关系[J].气象学报,2008,66(5):800-807. [28] 刘宣飞,袁旭.江南春雨的两个阶段及其降水性质[J].热带气象学报,2013,29(1):99-105. [29] 谭桂容,王一舒.中高纬度与热带大气的共同作用对江南4-6月低频降水的影响[J].气象学报,2016,74(3):335-351. [30] Hsu P-C,Li T,Lin Y-C,et al.A spatial-temporal projection method for seasonal prediction of spring rainfall in northern Taiwan[J].Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan,2012,90(2):179-190. |