气候变化对中国华北地区办公建筑供热制冷能耗的影响评估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2020.04.013

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以中国华北地区五大城市办公建筑为例，利用1961—2017年气象数据和TRNSYS软件模拟的供热制冷负荷数据，评估了气候变化背景下华北地区建筑供热制冷负荷的变化。在此基础上，对模拟负荷和气象要素进行多元线性逐步回归分析，揭示了影响建筑供热、制冷负荷的主要气象因子。结果表明：1961—2017年中国华北五大城市供热负荷均呈下降趋势，降幅为0.05（石家庄）—0.13 kWh·m^-2·（10 a）^-1（呼和浩特）；各城市制冷负荷的变化不同，仅呼和浩特为增多，增幅为0.04 kWh·m^-2·（10 a）^-1，其余城市制冷负荷无明显变化；从总负荷来看，各城市均呈下降趋势，降幅为0.05（太原）—0.10 kWh·m^-2·（10 a）^-1（呼和浩特）。由供热制冷负荷与气象要素的回归分析可知，冬季供热负荷主要受气温影响，五大城市的显著增温导致供热负荷减少；与此不同，夏季制冷负荷主要受气温、太阳辐射的共同影响，呼和浩特平均气温和太阳辐射均呈显著上升趋势，导致其制冷负荷显著增加。其他城市气温显著升高，而太阳辐射显著降低，二者的综合作用导致制冷负荷没有明显的变化趋势。总体来看，在气候变暖背景下，中国华北地区冬季供热负荷明显降低，而夏季制冷负荷并未明显增加，导致总负荷显著降低，气候变暖总体上对建筑节能有利。

关键词: 气候变化, 办公建筑, 供热负荷, 制冷负荷

Abstract:

Variations of the heating, cooling energy consumptions for office buildings in the five cities of North China were analyzed under the background of climate warming based on the meteorological data during 1961-2017 and records of heating, cooling energy consumptions.In addition, the dominant meteorological factors affecting buildings' heating and cooling energy consumptions were determined using stepwise multiple linear regression between the simulated energy consumptions and meteorological factors.The results show that heating and total energy consumptions in all the selected five cities significantly decrease during 1961-2017, with the decreasing rates between 0.05 kWh·m^-2·(10 a)^-1 (Shijiazhuang) to 0.13 kWh·m^-2·(10 a)^-1 (Huhehot).By contrast, there are different variations tendencies in cooling energy consumptions in the five cities, with a significant increase in Huhehot (increasing 0.04 kWh·m^-2 per decade) and no obvious variations in other cities.There are obvious decreasing tendencies in the total energy consumptions for all the cities, with decreasing rate of 0.05 kWh·m^-2·(10 a)^-1 (Taiyuan) - 0.10 kWh·m^-2·(10 a)^-1 (Huhehot).The stepwise multiple linear regression indicates that temperature is the dominant climatic factor affecting building heating energy consumptions in all the 5 cities.The increase in temperature during the past decades leads to a decrease in heating energy consumptions.By contrast, cooling energy consumptions are affected by temperature and solar radiation.Cooling energy consumption significantly increases in Huhehot due to the rising of temperature and solar radiation.No obvious variation trends of cooling energy consumptions in other 4 cities are dominant as a result of the offset of temperature (increasing) and solar radiation (decreasing).In general, under the background of climate warming, heating energy consumptions obviously decrease and no apparent variations are found in cooling energy consumptions in North China, which is beneficial for improving building energy efficiency.

Key words: Climate change, Office building, Heating load, Cooling load

中图分类号:

P468

杨艳娟,曹经福,李明财,陈跃浩. 气候变化对中国华北地区办公建筑供热制冷能耗的影响评估[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2020, 36(4): 95-103.

Yan-juan YANG,Jing-fu CAO,Ming-cai LI,Yue-hao CHEN. Assessment on effects of climate change on heating and cooling energy consumptions of office buildings in the representative cities of North China[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2020, 36(4): 95-103.

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代表城市	建筑围护结构传热系数/(W/(m²· K))			室内设计条件夏季/冬季			室内得热参数			窗墙比
代表城市	墙	屋顶	地面	温度/℃	相对湿度/(%)	换热系数/(1/h)	人员密度/(m²/person)	照明功率密度/(W/m²)	电器设备功率/(W/m²)	东	南	西	北
北京	0.60	0.55	1.50	26/20	60/30	1.5	4	11	20	0.34	0.40	0.34	0.41
天津	0.60	0.55	1.50	26/20	60/30	1.5	4	11	20	0.34	0.40	0.34	0.41
石家庄	0.60	0.55	1.50	26/20	60/30	1.5	4	11	20	0.34	0.40	0.34	0.41
太原	0.60	0.55	1.50	26/20	60/30	1.5	4	11	20	0.34	0.40	0.34	0.41
呼和浩特	0.45	0.35	2.00	26/20	60/30	1.5	4	11	20	0.27	0.35	0.27	0.26

月份		北京	天津	石家庄	太原	呼和浩特
1月	回归方程	y=-0.139T+3.135	y=-0.149T+3.183	y=-0.140T+3.067	y=-0.141T+3.068	y=-0.120T+3.077
1月	R²	0.94^***	0.92^***	0.93^***	0.78^***	0.99^***
2月	回归方程	y=-0.145T+2.983	y=-0.164T+3.064	y=-0.147T+2.927	y=-0.156T+2.942	y=-0.134T+2.841
2月	R²	0.96^***	0.95^***	0.95^***	0.87^***	0.98^***
3月	回归方程	y=-0.149T+2.773	y=-0.174T+2.938	y=-0.148T+2.715	y=-0.078T+1.365	y=-0.147T+2.532
3月	R²	0.92^***	0.94^***	0.92^***	0.89^***	0.92^***
4月	回归方程	-	-	-	-	y=-0.142T+2.32
4月	R²	-	-	-	-	0.89^***
10月	回归方程	-	-	-	-	y=-0.164T+2.549
10月	R²	-	-	-	-	0.91^***
11月	回归方程	y=-0.174T+3.063	y=-0.174T+3.142	y=-0.163T+2.984	y=-0.087T+1.587	y=-0.148T+2.808
11月	R²	0.93^***	0.94^***	0.94^***	0.93^***	0.96^***
12月	回归方程	y=-0.169T+3.121	y=-0.152T+3.219	y=-0.142T+3.084	y=-0.139T+3.131	y=-0.125T+3.106
12月	R²	0.93^***	0.93^***	0.90^***	0.92^***	0.99^***
年	回归方程	y=-0.181T+4.161	y=-0.204T+4.255	y=-0.189T+4.050	y=0.163T+3.470	y=-0.239T+5.265
年	R²	0.90^***	0.89^***	0.87^***	0.83^***	0.95^***

月份		北京	天津	石家庄	太原	呼和浩特
6月	回归方程1	y=0.124T-1.164	y=0.137T-1.414	y=0.121T-1.039	y=0.041S-0590	y=0.129T-1.324
	R²	0.56^***	0.58^***	0.54^***	0.49^***	0.79^***
	回归方程2	y=1.121T+0.039S-1.869	y=1.141T+0.036S-2.256	y=1.114T+0.034S-1.557	y=0.042S+0.124T-2.185	y=129T+0.044S-2.439
	R²	0.86^***	0.81^***	0.83^***	0.95^***	0.99^***
7月	回归方程1	y=0.154T-1.151	y=0.184T-2.213	y=0.155T-1.467	y=0.150T-1.701	y=0.134T-1.37
	R²	0.48^***	0.58^***	0.48^***	0.48^***	0.73^***
	回归方程2	y=0.324T+0.040RH-8.932	y=0.310T+0.034RH-8.107	y=0.305T+0.038RH-8.305	y=1.128T+0.045S-2.016	y=122T+0.039S-2.036
	R²	0.84^***	0.87^***	0.82^***	0.73^***	0.92^***
8月	回归方程1	y=0.137T-1.189	y=0.193T-2.581	y=0.168T-1.897	y=0.174T-2.323	y=0.136T-1.523
	R²	0.41^***	0.54^***	0.55^***	0.51^***	0.77^***
	回归方程2	y=0.367T+0.032RH-6.878	y=0.297T+0.030RH-7.530	y=0.280T+0.030RH-7.068	y=1.145T+0.042S-2.418	y=0.125T+0.036S-2.074
	R²	0.77^***	0.83^***	0.81^***	0.76^***	0.91^***
9月	回归方程1	y=0.107T-1.183	y=0.158T-2.229	y=0.128T-1.544	y=0.104T-1.253	-
	R²	0.66^***	0.73^***	0.73^***	0.67^***	-
	回归方程2	y=0.134T+0.041S-2.347	y=0.161T+0.039S-2.881	y=0.144T+0.034S-2.398	y=0.106T+0.031S-1.742	-
	R²	0.85^***	0.88^***	0.84^***	0.88^***	-
年	回归方程1	y=0.103T-0.350	y=0.158T-1.597	y=0.121T-0.692	y=0.045T-0.681	y=0.104T-1.027
	R²	0.33^***	0.49^***	0.37^***	0.42^***	0.74^***
	回归方程2	y=0.129T+0.064S-2.077	y=0.15T+0.046S-2.197	y=0.136T+0.052S-1.956	y=0.048T+0.124S-2.001	y=0.099T+0.034S-1.705
	R²	0.73^***	0.67^***	0.70^***	0.81^***	0.95^***

气象要素	北京	天津	石家庄	太原	呼和浩特
平均气温/(℃·(10 a)^-1)	0.369^**	0.373^**	0.275^**	0.281^**	0.310^**
太阳辐射/(MJ·(10 a)^-1)	-0.649^**	-0.288^**	-0.656^**	-0.251^**	0.387^**

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