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    SAL方法在东北地区台风降水预报检验中的应用

    Application of the SAL method to test the precipitation forecast of typhoons in Northeast China

    • 摘要: 选取2020年3次影响东北地区的北上台风的最强降水日作为个例, 利用最佳方法确定阈值并识别降水主体与个体, 对其进行SAL检验分析并评价中国气象局全球同化预报系统(CMA-GFS)、欧洲中期天气预报中心数值模式(EC)以及中国气象局中尺度天气数值预报系统(CMA-MESO)模式12~36 h预报在东北地区对台风降水的预报效果。结果表明: 台风“巴威”降水过程CMA-GFS的预报效果各方面均最佳。台风“美莎克”降水过程强度方面CMA-MESO预报较其他两个模式结果偏强, CMA-GFS结构预报得更好, EC对降水位置的预报最好。台风“海神”降水过程CMA-GFS和EC模式强度预报更好, EC模式对结构判断得最差但对降水位置的预报最佳。通过对2020年3次影响东北的台风模式检验分析, 初步探索了各个模式在台风预报中的预报倾向, 在未来东北地区台风降水强度的预报中, 特别是在相似台风个例发生时, 可以根据分析的模式预报特点进行选择性的参考与有目的的主观订正。

       

      Abstract: The strongest precipitation days of three north-moving typhoons affecting Northeast China in 2020 were selected as examples, the best method was used to determine the threshold and identify the precipitation subjects and individuals, and the SAL (structure, amplitude and location) test was carried out to analyze and evaluate the effects of 12-36 h forecast of the China Meteorological Administration's Global Generalized Forecast System (CMA-GFS), European Center for Medium-Range Weather Prediction (EC) model and China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction System (CMA-MESO) model on typhoon precipitation in Northeast China.The results show that the forecasting effect of CMA-GFS for the precipitation process of typhoon Bavi is the best.For Typhoon Mavsak, the precipitation process intensity forecasted by the CMA-MESO model is stronger than those of the other two models.The structure forecast by the CMA-GFS model is better, and the precipitation position forecasted by the EC model is the best.The CMA-GFS and EC models are better at predicting the intensity of the precipitation process of Typhoon Haishen, and the EC model is the worst at predicting the structure but the best at predicting the precipitation location.We test and analyze three typhoon models affecting Northeast China in 2020 to explore preliminarily the forecast tendency of each model in typhoon forecast.In the forecast of typhoon precipitation intensity in Northeast China in the future, especially when similar typhoons occur, selective reference and purposefully subjective correction can be operated according to the model forecast characteristics.

       

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