主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (3): 28-33.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2016.03.004

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

浙江省六大水库流域面雨量模式预报效果检验

朱占云1, 陈光宇2, 姜瑜君3, 沈萍月1, 许娈3   

  1. 1. 浙江省气象服务中心, 浙江 杭州 310017;
    2. 杭州市气象局, 浙江 杭州 310051;
    3. 浙江省气象科学研究所, 浙江 杭州 310008
  • 收稿日期:2015-05-28 修回日期:2015-08-14 出版日期:2016-06-30 发布日期:2016-06-30
  • 作者简介:朱占云,女,1986年生,工程师,主要从事专业气象服务产品的开发研究,E-mail:zhu_zhanyun@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    浙江省气象局重点项目（2013ZD09）资助。

Evaluation of the prediction by area rainfall forecast model OCF for six big reservoir basins in Zhejiang province

ZHU Zhan-yun1, CHEN Guang-yu2, JIANG Yu-jun3, SHEN Ping-yue1, XU Luan3   

  1. 1. Zhejiang Meteorological Service Center, Hangzhou 310017, China;
    2. Hangzhou Meteorological Service, Hangzhou 310051, China;
    3. Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Hangzhou 310008, China
  • Received:2015-05-28 Revised:2015-08-14 Online:2016-06-30 Published:2016-06-30

PDF (PC)

403

被引次数

2

摘要： 利用OCF（Objective Consensus Forecasting）模式对2014年浙江省梅雨、8月连阴雨、午后雷阵雨和台风降水4种不同降水过程中六大水库流域面雨量进行预报，并采用综合评分法和TS评分法对预报效果进行检验。结果表明:OCF模式对2014年浙江地区锋面降水（梅雨、8月连阴雨）预报的综合模糊评分和TS评分均较好，空报率远高于漏报率，从192 h至24 h预报时效的预报效果缓慢调整，各水库之间预报效果差异较小；OCF模式对午后雷阵雨预报的综合模糊评分和TS评分较好，空报率较高的水库流域漏报率也偏高，从192 h至24 h预报时效预报效果不稳定，且存在显著的地域差异；OCF模式对台风降水预报的综合模糊评分和TS评分均偏低，空报率高于漏报率，从192 h至24 h预报时效为显著调好趋势，各水库之间预报效果差异较大。

关键词: OCF模式, 水库流域面雨量, 综合模糊评分法, TS评分

Abstract: A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and TS (Threat Score) score were used to compare and analyse the forecast skills of OCF (Objective Consensus Forecasting) model based on areal rainfall over six reservoir basins in Zhejiang province during Meiyu period,persistent rainy weather in August,afternoon thundershowers,typhoon precipitation processes in 2014.The results show that during the frontal precipitation processes (i.e.,Meiyu rainfall and August continuous rain processes),OCF model has better forecast skills with higher fuzzy comprehensive and TS scores,and the false alarm ratios are far higher than the miss alarm rates.Prediction skill of OCF model is gradually improved with the lead time from 192 h to 24 h,and the differences predicted among reservoirs are reduced.For the afternoon thundershower cases,OCF model gets a secondary performance in fuzzy comprehensive and TS scores.When these reservoir basins gets higher false alarm rates,they has higher miss alarm rates.The forecast scores of leading time from 192 h to 24 h show an unstable change pattern.There are significant regional differences.For typhoons of Fungwong and Matmo,OCF model exhibits a poor performance both in fuzzy comprehensive and TS scores,and the false alarm rates are higher than those of the miss alarm.The forecast skill shows a distinct improving trend from 192 h to 24 h in the leading time.The differences among reservoirs are obvious.

Key words: OCF model, Area rainfall, Fuzzy comprehensive assessment, TS score

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