主办单位:中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号:ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号:CN 21-1531/P

气象与环境学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (4): 68-74.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2018.04.009

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于气象条件的沈阳市空气质量预报方法研究

陆忠艳1  王扬锋2   蒋大凯1  藤方达1  丁兆敏1  田莉1  李忠亮3   

  1. 1.辽宁省气象台, 辽宁 沈阳  110166;2.中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所, 辽宁 沈阳 10166;3. 西宁市气象台, 青海 西宁 810016
  • 收稿日期:2018-01-17 修回日期:2018-04-03 出版日期:2018-08-31 发布日期:2018-09-03

Study on forecast method of air quality in Shenyang based on meteorological conditions

LU Zhong-yan1  WANG Yang-feng2  JIANG Da-kai1  TENG Fang-da1  DING Zhao-min1  TIAN Li1 LI Zhong-liang3   

  1. 1. Liaoning Meteorological Observatory, Shenyang ,110016,China ;2. Institute of Atmospheric Environment, CMA, Shenyang, 110166, China;Xining Meteorological Service, Xining 810016,China
  • Received:2018-01-17 Revised:2018-04-03 Online:2018-08-31 Published:2018-09-03

摘要:

空气质量受污染源排放和气象条件共同作用影响,为了定量评估气象条件对空气质量的影响,本文利用2014—2016年沈阳市取暖季气象与环保827个样本数据,在综合考虑湿度、风速、逆温强度、混合层高度等大气温湿压条件及稳定状况的物理要素基础上构建了沈阳市静稳天气指数,并分析其与空气质量关系。结果表明:通过静稳天气指数阈值9.1可判断引起沈阳市出现重污染天气的两种主要原因,一种是在静稳天气形势下出现重污染天气,另一种是在天气不静稳但外来输送明显时出现重污染天气。分析静稳天气指数和不同污染等级PM2.5浓度关系,结果发现静稳天气指数对空气质量有较好的指示意义,平均状态下,当静稳天气指数大于10.4时,空气质量容易出现污染且静稳天气指数越大,污染越严重。可应用静稳天气指数从气象角度预报空气质量。

关键词: 空气质量, 静稳天气指数, 取暖季, 预报

Abstract:

Air quality is affected by the emission of pollutant sources and meteorological conditions. In order to quantitatively evaluate the effects of meteorological conditions on air quality, a stable weather index is established using 872 groups of meteorological and environmental data in the heating seasons of 2014-2016 in Shenyang, which involved different physical parameters such as relative humidity, wind speed, inversion temperature intensity, and mixing boundary layer height, and the relationship between the index and air quality was analyzed in this study. The threshold of stable weather index (= 9.1) can identify two major causes of severe air pollution events in Shenyang. One reason is stable weather situation, and the other is pollutant transport from other regions under unstable weather conditions. The stable weather index is proved as a good indicator for air quality through analyzing the relationship between it and PM2.5 concentrations at different pollution levels. On the whole, when the stable weather index is larger than 10.4, air pollution event usually occur. With the increase in the stable weather index, air pollution tends to be heavier. Therefore, the stable weather index can be used to predict air quality from the view of meteorology.

Key words: Air quality, Stable weather index, Heating season, Forecast

中图分类号: