CMIP5和CMIP3对未来中国近地层风速变化的预估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2018.06.006

气象与环境学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (6): 56-63.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2018.06.006

CMIP5和CMIP3对未来中国近地层风速变化的预估

江滢¹, 徐希燕², 刘汉武³, 王文本³, 董旭光⁴

1. 中国气象局公共气象服务中心行业气象室, 北京 100081;
2. 中国科学院东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室/中国科学院大气物理研究所, 北京 100029;
3. 巢湖市气象局, 安徽合肥 238000;
4. 山东省气候中心, 山东济南 250031

收稿日期:2017-07-17 修回日期:2017-11-27 出版日期:2018-12-31 发布日期:2018-12-31
作者简介:江滢,女,1972年生,正研级高级工程师,主要从事风能太阳能资源、气候变化和交通气象方面研究,E-mail:jiangy@cma.gov.cn。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目“中国风速长期变化的原因和机制研究”（41205114）资助。

Projection of surface wind by CMIP5 and CMIP3 in China in the 21^st century

JIANG Ying¹, XU Xi-yan², LIU Han-wu³, WANG Wen-ben³, DONG Xu-guang⁴

1. Specialized Meteorological Office of CMA Public Meteorological Service Center, Beijing 100081, China;
2. CAS Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;
3. Meteorological Service of Chaohu Lake Basin, Hefei 238000, China;
4. Shandong Climate Center, Ji'nan 250031, China

Received:2017-07-17 Revised:2017-11-27 Online:2018-12-31 Published:2018-12-31

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用世界气候研究计划的第五阶段模式比较计划（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5，CMIP5）提供的参加政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估报告（The Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change，IPCC AR5）的23个全球气候模式和第三阶段模式比较计划/第四次评估报告CMIP3/AR4的19个全球气候模式，考虑高排放典型浓度路径RCP 8.5（Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5）和排放情景特别策划SRES A2（Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2）、中等排放（RCP 4.5和SRES A1B）和低排放（RCP 2.6和SRES B1）各3种温室气体排放情景，预估21世纪中国近地层（距地面10 m）风速变化。结果表明：21世纪中国区域近地层年平均风速呈减小的趋势，随着温室气体排放浓度的增加，年平均风速减小趋势的程度依次显著，模式预估风速减小趋势的一致性也依次增加。CMIP5和CMIP3模式的预估结果均表明21世纪中国西部地区（N和SW区）年平均风速呈减小的趋势，东部地区（NE和SE区）年平均风速呈增加的变化趋势。与21世纪前期（2006-2015年）相比，21世纪后期（2090-2099年）中国西部、华北北部至东北南部地区风速偏小，东北北部、华北南部至华南大部地区风速偏大。温室气体排放浓度越大，21世纪后期中国冬季（夏季）风速偏小（偏大）于21世纪前期的范围越大，偏小（偏大）程度越明显。

关键词: CMIP5, CMIP3, 近地层风速, RCP, 预估

Abstract: The change of surface wind speed was projected by 23 Climate models from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) for IPCC AR5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report) adapted by WCRP (Word Climate Research Programme) and 19 Climate models from the CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 3) for IPCC AR4 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report) adapted by WCRP (Word Climate Research Programme).The human emission scenarios used the RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) including RCP2.6,RCP4.5 RCP8.5 from CMIP5 and the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) including B1,A1B,A2 from CMIP3.The results show that the mean annual wind speeds would decrease slightly in China in the 21^st century.The mean wind speeds would reduce more significantly with the increase of human emission concentration.Both CMIP5 and CMIP3 project that the mean annual wind speed in Western China (Northern and Southwestern parts) would decrease in the 21^st Century and would increase in the eastern region.Compared with that in the early period of the 21^st Century (2006-2015),wind speed would decrease in the south of Northeast China,north of North China and West China,while it would increase in the south of North China,South China and the north of Northeast China in the late 21^st Century (2090-2099).With the increase of human emission concentration,the negative (positive) deviation ranges in wind would enlarge and the corresponding center value would be more concentrated in winter (summer).

Key words: CMIP5, CMIP3, Surface wind speed, RCP, Projection

中图分类号:

P467

江滢, 徐希燕, 刘汉武, 王文本, 董旭光. CMIP5和CMIP3对未来中国近地层风速变化的预估[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2018, 34(6): 56-63.

JIANG Ying, XU Xi-yan, LIU Han-wu, WANG Wen-ben, DONG Xu-guang. Projection of surface wind by CMIP5 and CMIP3 in China in the 21^st century[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2018, 34(6): 56-63.

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CMIP5和CMIP3对未来中国近地层风速变化的预估

Projection of surface wind by CMIP5 and CMIP3 in China in the 21^st century

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CMIP5和CMIP3对未来中国近地层风速变化的预估

Projection of surface wind by CMIP5 and CMIP3 in China in the 21st century

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Projection of surface wind by CMIP5 and CMIP3 in China in the 21^st century