主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (4): 93-99.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2019.04.013

• 论文 • 上一篇    

沈阳地区浅层地温变化特征及播种期地温预报研究

宋晓巍1, 李琳琳2, 李石1, 刘青1, 高淑新3, 姜珊1, 张菁1, 张靖萱1   

  1. 1. 沈阳市气象局, 辽宁 沈阳 110168;
    2. 辽宁省气象科学研究所, 辽宁 沈阳 110166;
    3. 新民市气象局, 辽宁 新民 110300
  • 收稿日期:2017-12-18 修回日期:2018-06-25 发布日期:2019-09-03
  • 通讯作者: 张菁,女,高级工程师,E-mail:894410067@qq.com。 E-mail:894410067@qq.com
  • 作者简介:宋晓巍,男,1984年生,工程师,主要从事农业气象与遥感研究,E-mail:278167408@qq.com。
  • 基金资助:
    沈阳市科学技术局沈阳市科技创新专项资金—农业科技攻关项目（F14-113-3-00）资助。

Change characteristics of shallow ground temperature and its prediction during the sowing period in Shenyang

SONG Xiao-wei1, LI Lin-lin2, LI Shi1, LIU Qing1, GAO Shu-xin3, JIANG Shan1, ZHANG Jing1, ZHANG Jing-xuan1   

  1. 1. Shenyang Meteorological Service, Shenyang 110168, China;
    2. Liaoning Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Shenyang 110166, China;
    3. Xinmin Meteorological Service, Xinmin 110300, China
  • Received:2017-12-18 Revised:2018-06-25 Published:2019-09-03
  • Supported by:
    This work is supported by Science and Technology Project of SGCC (No.521104170013).

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摘要： 为了掌握沈阳地区地温变化规律，并提供更好的大田地温预报服务，降低播种风险，提高粮食生产安全，利用沈阳地区7个气象站点1981-2015年地温和气温数据，运用数理统计方法，分析近35 a地温和气温的变化规律，建立了春播期（4月和5月）地温预报模型。结果表明：1981-2010年，年代际温度呈上升趋势，气温的变化导致地温的变化也更加明显，气温和各层地温的气候倾向率为0.426-0.549℃/10 a，4-10月0-5 cm、5-10 cm、10-20 cm每一层的地温差为1.5℃、0.5℃和0.5℃；0-20 cm地温以及气温在1996年前后发生了突变；春播期西部地区0 cm、5 cm、10 cm的地温和气温差值4-5月由较低转为较高；地温预报模型t检验的P值在P=0.01水平差异均不显著，相对误差控制在±10%以内，可以用于沈阳春播期（4月和5月）地温预测。

关键词: 沈阳地区, 地温, 播种期, 预报

Abstract: For understanding the change rule of ground temperature in Shenyang area,providing better forecast service on field temperature,reducing the risk of sowing and improving grain production safety,based on the data of air and ground temperature from the seven meteorological stations in Shenyang area from 1981 to 2015, the change rules of air and ground temperature in recent 35 years were analyzed using mathematical statistics methods and a ground temperature forecasting model for the spring sowing period (April and May) was established.The results show that from 1981 to 2010,the decadal temperature shows an increasing trend and the change of air temperature results in an obvious change of ground temperature.The climate tendency rates of air and ground temperature are between 0.426℃/10 a and 0.549℃/10 a.In the past 35 years,the differences of ground temperature at the soil depth of 0-5 cm,5-10 cm,and 10-20 cm are 1.5℃,0.5℃,and 0.5℃ during April and October,respectively.The ground temperature at the soil depth of 0-20 cm and air temperature undergo a climate abrupt change in 1996,affecting the changing trend of temperature.During the spring sowing period,the differences between air temperature and ground temperature at the soil depth of 0 cm,5 cm and 10 cm in the western region change respectively from the low value in April to the high value in May.The t-test of the ground temperature forecast model doesn't show significant difference at P=0.01 level,and the relative error is within ±10%,indicating that the model can be applied for the prediction of ground temperature during the spring sowing period (April and May) in Shenyang area.

Key words: Shenyang area, Ground temperature, Sowing period, Forecast

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