一次梅汛期强降雨过程的中期时效预报误差分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2020.04.002

气象与环境学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (4): 11-17.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2020.04.002

一次梅汛期强降雨过程的中期时效预报误差分析

马杰¹(),刘晓琳²,李红³,杨森^4,*(),刘鑫华¹,尹姗¹,任宏昌¹,刘一¹,张峰¹

1. 国家气象中心, 北京 100081
2. 中国电力科学研究院有限公司新能源与储能运行控制国家重点实验室, 北京 100192
3. 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室, 甘肃兰州 730020
4. 中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所, 辽宁沈阳 110166

收稿日期:2019-04-24 出版日期:2020-08-30 发布日期:2020-06-16
通讯作者: 杨森 E-mail:majie@mail.iap.ac.cn;momoyang_sen@163.com
作者简介:马杰,男, 1980年生,高级工程师,主要从事中期延伸期预报研究, E-mail:majie@mail.iap.ac.cn
基金资助:
国网公司总部科技项目“考虑大尺度天气系统影响的省级新能源功率长时间预测技术”(NYB17201800148);国家科技支撑计划课题(2015BAC03B04);中国气象局预报预测核心业务发展专项(CMAHX20160101)

Analysis of the forecast error of rainband position in medium-range during a Meiyu heavy rainfall event

Jie MA¹(),Xiao-lin LIU²,Hong LI³,Sen YANG^4,*(),Xin-hua LIU¹,Shan YIN¹,Hong-chang REN¹,Yi LIU¹,Feng ZHANG¹

1. National Weather Center, Beijing 100081, China
2. State Key Laboratory of Operation and Control of Renewable Energy＆Storage Systems, China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing 100192, China
3. Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China
4. Institute of Atmospheric Environment, China Meteorological Administration, Shenyang 110166, China

Received:2019-04-24 Online:2020-08-30 Published:2020-06-16
Contact: Sen YANG E-mail:majie@mail.iap.ac.cn;momoyang_sen@163.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

2016年6月30日至7月4日，中国长江流域发生了入汛以来最强的一次极端降雨过程，但对雨带位置的预报却出现了显著误差。为此，本文基于欧洲中期天气预报中心的预报资料，利用天气学诊断方法，分析了确定性和集合预报的基本情况，讨论了预报误差产生原因及其演变特征。结果表明：梅雨锋上次天气尺度波动在中国黄淮—辽东半岛到朝鲜半岛—日本东部一带呈“负—正—负”的分布，它的强弱对雨带位置的变化起着重要影响。当该波动偏强时，有利于低层季风向北伸展，加之冷空气强度偏弱，进而造成雨带位置偏北，反之亦然。此外，通过对比集合预报成员中的准确和偏北成员组，发现该次天气尺度波动来源于青藏高原东北部的初始误差场。伴随着中纬度西风波动的向东传播，该误差在中低层沿着梅雨锋向东移动、并不断增强，最终造成中国长江中下游地区雨带位置明显偏北。

关键词: 西风急流, 梅雨雨带, 集合预报, 中期预报, 初始误差

Abstract:

From June 30 to July 4, 2016, the strongest extreme rainfall hit the Yangtze basin since the flood season.However, in the operation, the prediction of the location of rain belts has a significant error.Therefore, based on the ensemble forecast data from the European Medium-Range Weather Forecast Center (ECMWF), this study analyzed the basic situation of the deterministic and ensemble forecasting using the method of synoptic diagnosis and discussed the causes of forecasting error.The results show that the sub-synoptic scale disturbance along the Meiyu front is dominant in the variability of the Meiyu rain band position, which appears a negative-positive-negative distribution in the region from Huanghuai-Liaodong Peninsula to the Korean Peninsula-eastern Japan.Its strength has an important influence on the change of rain belt position.When the disturbance is strong, it is favorable for the low-level monsoon to extend to the north, and the cold air intensity is weak, thus causing the location of the rain belt to be north, and vice versa.In addition, it is found that the synoptic-scale fluctuation originates from the initial error field in the northeast of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau by comparing the accurate and northerly members of the ensemble forecast group.Along with the eastward propagation of mid-latitude westerly wind fluctuation, the error moves eastward along the Meiyu front in the middle and lower layers, and increases continuously, finally causing the rain belt in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River to be significantly northerly.

Key words: Westerly jet, Meiyu rain belt, Ensemble forecast, Medium-range forecast, Initial error

中图分类号:

P458.3

马杰, 刘晓琳, 李红, 杨森, 刘鑫华, 尹姗, 任宏昌, 刘一, 张峰. 一次梅汛期强降雨过程的中期时效预报误差分析[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2020, 36(4): 11-17.

Jie MA, Xiao-lin LIU, Hong LI, Sen YANG, Xin-hua LIU, Shan YIN, Hong-chang REN, Yi LIU, Feng ZHANG. Analysis of the forecast error of rainband position in medium-range during a Meiyu heavy rainfall event[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2020, 36(4): 11-17.

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一次梅汛期强降雨过程的中期时效预报误差分析

Analysis of the forecast error of rainband position in medium-range during a Meiyu heavy rainfall event

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