冬小麦潜在北移区农业气候资源评价

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2017.06.010

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the high-resolution (50 km×50 km) future climate data from 2071 to 2097 simulated under a scenario of RCP4.5 using a model of Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS),the northward shifting boundary of winter wheat was estimated in comparison with the data from 1981 to 2010.Nine climatic factors including the sunlight,temperature and water sources were chosen to study the spatial and temporal variations of the agricultural climate resources in the potential northward shifting region of winter wheat including Liaoning province,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,Hebei province,Shanxi province,Shaanxi province,Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,and Jilin province.The allocation of agricultural climate resources was evaluated based on the method of Dynamic Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (DTOPSIS).The results indicated that the radiation is high in the west and low in the east in the potential northward region of winter wheat in China from 1981 to 2010,and the variation of inter-annual radiation has a decreasing trend.Heat resources are rich in Shanxi province in the central China and are poor in Shaanxi province in the western China,in the southern part of Liaoning province.All the five indexes of heat resource such as annual mean air temperature,annual negative cumulative temperature,cumulative temperature ≥ 0℃ during the growing season,extremely lowest temperature,and frostless season exhibit increasing trends from 1981 to 2010.Water resources are rich in the east and low in the west.Annual precipitation and wet days decrease,while precipitation in the growing season increases from 1981 to 2010.Agricultural climate resources in the potential northward region of winter wheat show a better allocation in Dandong,Xiuyan and other regions in the eastern part of Liaoning province,and such allocations in Wengniute Banner in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,Weichang in Hebei province,Youyu and Wuzhai in Shanxi province are poor.In comparison with the period from 1981 to 2010,the area of adaptability region for winter wheat decreases in Liaoning province,while the area of sub-adaptability region increases mainly due to the transformation of inadaptability region to sub-adaptability region in Shaanxi province and NingxiaHui Autonomous Region in southwestern China region in the future northward region of winter wheat from 2071 to 2097.

Key words: Light-temperature-water, RCP 4.5, Dynamic Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (DTOPSIS) method

CLC Number:

ZHANG Meng-ting, ZHANG Yu-jing, TONG Jin-he, LI Kuo, PAN Jie, XU Yin-long. Evaluation of agricultural climate resources in the potential northward region of winter wheat[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2017, 33(6): 73-81.

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Evaluation of agricultural climate resources in the potential northward region of winter wheat

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