主办单位:中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号:ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号:CN 21-1531/P

Journal of Meteorology and Environment ›› 2018, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (5): 119-127.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2018.05.015

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The verification of northeast regional numerical model products in operational weather forecast services

SAI Han1, LI Yan1, LIU Shuo2, QUAN Mei-lan3, SUN Yue-cheng4   

  1. 1. Dalian Meteorological Observatory, Dalian 116001, China;
    2. Shenyang Central Meteorological Observatory, Shenyang 110000, China;
    3. Fushun Meteorological Service, Fushun 113006, China;
    4. Dalian Meteorological Information Center, Dalian 116001, China
  • Received:2017-05-15 Revised:2017-07-24 Online:2018-10-31 Published:2018-10-31

Abstract: Based on the ground temperature,precipitation,wind direction and speed,relative humidity data from seven main weather stations in Dalian area in 2015,the conventional weather elements predicted with the Northeast Regional Mesoscale Numerical Model (WRF) were analyzed for assessing the forecasting ability of WRF Model.This research will provide a technical reference for the revision of the model products in weather forecasting service.The results show that the forecast accuracy of temperature at 08:00 by WRF is higher than that at 20:00.The forecast value of minimum temperature is more accurate than that of the maximum temperature.WRF demonstrates a better performance in predicting the trend of warming and cooling.The forecast accuracy of precipitation by WRF is relatively high compared with other meteorological variables.The accuracy of the wind direction predicted by WRF is about 50% while that of wind speed can be 60% to 70%.The relative humidity predicted by WRF can be applied in the fog forecast.

Key words: WRF mesoscale model, Verification, Weather elements, Forecast

CLC Number: