基于NCEP FNL资料的山西岢岚地区雨雪天气诊断可信度分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2019.02.004

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) FNL Reanalysis data (1°×1°) and radiosonde data on a total of 1218 rainy and snowy days from 2005 to 2014 in Kelan,Shanxi province,the conventional physical variables (temperature,relative humidity,zonal wind and meridional wind) and diagnostic physical variables (T_800-500,T_d800 and TT_d700) were statistically analyzed based on statistical analysis methods including deviation,absolute difference,correlation coefficient,and the occurrence rates of deviation range.The results showed that among these conventional physical variables,air temperature has the lowest averaged deviation and absolute difference and the highest correlation coefficient,being-0.22 ℃,1.02 ℃,and 0.90,respectively,which means air temperature has the highest reliability.While relative humidity has the lowest reliability with the largest averaged deviation and absolute difference and the smallest correlation coefficient,being 12.31%,19.68%,and 0.63,respectively.The reliability of the zonal wind and meridional wind is close to each other and slightly lower than that of air temperature.For these diagnostic physical variables,the deviations of T_800-500,T_d800 and TT_d700 are -0.08 ℃,1.50 ℃,and 2.79 ℃,respectively,and their absolute difference are 1.21 ℃,3.33 ℃,and 4.14 ℃ with the correlation coefficient of 0.95,0.92,and 0.74,respectively.The occurrence rates of deviation range between-5 and 5 are 98.77%,80.30%,and 75.04%,respectively.The reliability of T_800-500 is highest and that of TT_d700 is the lowest.The characteristics of the NCEP FNL reanalysis data on rainy and snowy days should be paid attention.

Key words: Rainy and snowy weather, NCEP FNL Reanalysis data, Radiosonde data, Conventional physical variable, Diagnostic physical variable

CLC Number:

P468.0

CHENG Hu-hua, WANG Yi-bai, WEN Bin, WU Shuai, ZHI Mao-lin, ZHAO Liang. Confidence analysis of rainy and snowy weather diagnosis in Kelan,Shanxi province based on NCEP FNL data[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2019, 35(2): 23-31.

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Confidence analysis of rainy and snowy weather diagnosis in Kelan,Shanxi province based on NCEP FNL data

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