山岳型风景区最高最低气温预报方法研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2019.02.013

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the ECMWF grid data and the observation data,the temperature forecast for mountainous scenic spot using SVM and Kalman methods was investigated.The results show that the accuracy of the single SVM method is relatively high and stable,while that of the Kalman method is not sufficiently available especially for long-time forecast.The performance of integration solution of the two methods is better than that of the single one of them.More specifically,the forecasting accuracies of maximum and minimum air temperature decrease with the increasing prediction time for each method.The analysis also shows that the absolute error of forecasted maximum air temperature is smaller than that of minimum air temperature.

Key words: Mountainous scenic spot, Integration forecast, Maximum air temperature, Minimum air temperature

CLC Number:

P457.3

WANG Xin-wei, ZHANG Yu-xing, WEI Fang-fang. Research on forecast method of maximum and minimum air temperature in mountainous scenic spot[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2019, 35(2): 92-96.

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http://www.jme1984.net.cn/EN/Y2019/V35/I2/92

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Research on forecast method of maximum and minimum air temperature in mountainous scenic spot

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