BCC_CSM1.1(m)模式对初夏东北冷涡的模拟及应用

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2019.04.008

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the numerical simulation data of the BCC_CSM1.1 (Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1) (m) model and the NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis data from 1991 to 2017,the ability of BCC_CSM1.1 (m) model to simulate the cold vortex in Northeast China in early summer was evaluated.The results demonstrate that the BCC_CSM1.1 (m) model is basically successful in simulating the climate state of 500 hPa geopotential height fields.The mean square root error shows that the simulation result of the 500 hPa geopotential height fields in the south of Northeast China is better than that in the north of Northeast China.The first EOF mode of 500 hPa geopotential height fields demonstrates that the BCC_CSM1.1 (m) model can well simulate the major temporal and spatial features.The BCC_CSM1.1 (m) model can well simulate the upward trend and interannual variability of the northeast cold vortex (NECV) index in the last 27 years,however,the simulated upward trend is stronger than the actual situation and the interannual variability is weaker than the actual situation.The BCC_CSM1.1 (m) model can also successfully reproduce the interdecadal abrupt change of the NECV index,however,the start time of abrupt change is later than that of the actual situation.It is able to successfully simulate the significant positive correlation between the NECV index and the 500 hPa geopotential height fields in Northeast China and nearby areas,however,it fails to catch the significant negative correlation between the NECV index and the early summer rainfall in Northeast China.Furthermore,the ability of the NECV index to simulate the rainfall in early summer in Northeast China is very limited.

Key words: BCC_CSM1.1(m), Cold vortex in Northeast China, Simulation

CLC Number:

P461

JIAO Min, LI Ji, YU Ya-xin, HU Chun-li, WANG Ying, ZHOU Bin. Exploration of simulation and application of early summer cold vortex in Northeast China using the BCC_CSM1.1(m) model[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2019, 35(4): 55-62.

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Exploration of simulation and application of early summer cold vortex in Northeast China using the BCC_CSM1.1(m) model

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