Table 1

Information of 19 global climate models from CMIP5"

Fig.1

Distribution of meteorological stations in Liaoning province"

Fig.2

Root-mean-square errors of the annual mean surface air temperature in Liaoning province simulated with 19 global climate models and multi-model ensemble from 2006 to 2015"

Fig.3

Spatial distribution of annual mean air temperature in Liaoning province from 2006 to 2015"

Fig.4

Spatial distribution of annual mean temperature simulated with the optimal model under the RCP2.6 (a), RCP4.5 (b), RCP8.5 (c) and multi-model ensemble under the RCP2.6 (d), RCP4.5 (e), and RCP8.5 (f) scenarios from 2006 to 2015"

Fig.5

Spatial distribution of annual mean temperature anomaly simulated with the optimal model under the RCP2.6 (a), RCP4.5(b), RCP8.5 (c) and multi-model ensemble under the RCP2.6 (d), RCP4.5 (e), RCP8.5 (f) scenarios from 2006 to 2015"

Fig.6

Spatial distribution of root mean square errors of anomaly mean temperature simulated with the optimal model under the RCP2.6 (a), RCP4.5 (b), RCP8.5 (c) and multi-model ensemble under the RCP2.6 (d), RCP4.5 (e), RCP8.5 (f) scenarios from 2006 to 2015"

Fig.7

Variation of annual mean temperature during 2006-2099 predicted by the optimal model and observed at meteorological stations averaged in Liaoning province, the root-mean-square errors, and the linear trend under the RCP2.6 (a), RCP4.5 (b), and RCP8.5 (c) scenarios as well as their reliability during 2016-2099 (d)"

Fig.8

Spatial distribution of beginning years under the RCP2.6 (a), RCP4.5 (b), RCP8.5 (c) and magnitude under the RCP2.6 (d), RCP4.5 (e), RCP8.5 (f) scenarios of the warming above 2 ℃ for the first time in Liaoning province"

Table 2

Beginning years, station numbers, and magnitude of the warming above 2 ℃ for the first time in Liaoning province under different scenarios of CO2 emission"

Fig.9

Spatial distribution of beginning years (a), ending years (b), duration(c), and magnitude (d) of the warming above 2 ℃ for the first time in Liaoning province under the RCP2.6 scenario"

Table 3

The beginning years, end years, duration, and station numbers of annual mean temperature warming stably above 2 ℃ for the first time in Liaoning province under different scenarios of CO2 emission"

Fig.10

Spatial distribution of beginning years (a), ending years (b), duration (c), and magnitude of the warming (d)above 2 ℃ for the first time in Liaoning province under the RCP4.5 scenario"

Fig.11

Spatial distribution of beginning years (a), ending years (b), duration (c), and magnitude of the warming (d)above 2 ℃ for the first time in Liaoning province under the RCP8.5 scenario"

Fig.12

Variations of annual mean temperature in the northern (a), eastern (b), southern (c), western (d) and central (e) regions of Liaoning province predicted by the optimal model under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios"

Table 4

Temperature minimum, maximum and averages in each region of Liaoning province predicted by the optimal model under different scenarios of CO2 emission"