循环同化雷达资料对一次飑线系统临近预报的改进作用

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2021.03.001

Abstract

Abstract:

Using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model and the Three-Dimensional Variational (3DVar) assimilation system, numerical sensitivity experiments were conducted to examine the performance of using radar data cycling assimilation to predict a squall line event in the surrounding areas of Beijing on July 7, 2017.Among the experiments, the best prediction occurred when the squall line reached the mature period with the use of the cycling assimilation of radar data.The main reason is that with the use of the cycling assimilation of radar data, the forecasted low-level northwesterly cold air is relatively strong, which leads to strong low-level wind shears.This is favorable for the maintaining of the squall line's development, in conjunction with strong thermal instability conditions.The comparison of 7 sensitivity experiments showed that for single radar data, the timing of assimilation is more important.The assimilation of radar reflectivity data at the mature stage of the squall line can improve the low-level thermal stratification and provide unstable energy for the development of the squall line.For cycling assimilation, the flow fields can be well modified through the observation influence and the thermodynamic adjustment of the model itself, which provides sufficient dynamic conditions for the continuous development of the convective system.

Key words: Cycling assimilation, Radar data, Squall line, Nowcasting

CLC Number:

P456.7

Qi-ru DONG, Xiao-bin QIU, Ying WANG, Ze-lin WANG, Ji LI, Mian LIANG. Improvement of nowcasting for a squall line using cycling assimilation radar data[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2021, 37(3): 1-11.

Figures/Tables 11

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试验名称	常规资料	雷达资料同化时次	方案描述
ctl(控制试验)	有	不同化	以7日00时作为背景场，只同化常规观测，不同化雷达资料，预报24 h
exp_da	有	12	以7日00时作为背景场，每3 h只循环同化常规资料至7日12时，只同化12时雷达资料，预报24 h
exp_00	有	00	以7日00时作为背景场，只同化00时雷达资料，预报24 h
exp_03	有	00, 03	exp_00积分3 h结果作为背景场，并同化03时雷达资料，预报24 h
exp_06	有	00, 03, 06	exp_03积分3 h结果作为背景场，并同化06时雷达资料，预报24 h
exp_09	有	00, 03, 06, 09	exp_06积分3 h结果作为背景场，并同化09时雷达资料，预报24 h
exp_12	有	00, 03, 06, 09, 12	exp_09积分3 h结果作为背景场，并同化12时雷达资料，预报24 h

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Improvement of nowcasting for a squall line using cycling assimilation radar data

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