基于闪电定位和雷达资料的邵阳地区雷电预报预警研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2021.03.016

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on lightning location data and radar data, the 30 dBz, 35 dBz, and 40 dBz echo peaks of the 17 thunderstorm cells and 9 non-thunderstorm cells, as well as the relationship between the echo area exceeding 30 dBz, 35 dBz and 40 dBz at 0℃, -10℃, and-20℃ layer and the occurrence of lightning in Shaoyang in the summer of 2018, were analyzed.Using 40 dBz echo top height, the echo area above the-10℃ layer exceeding 40 dBz and its ratio to the total area of the cell, the lightning in this area was forecasted.The results show that when the echo intensity of thunderstorm cell and non-thunderstorm cell is 40 dBz, the difference of percentage of three stratification heights exceeding 0℃, -10℃, and-20℃ is the largest.The 40 dBz echo top height of the-10℃ layer can better distinguish thunderstorm cells and non-thunderstorm cells in the Shaoyang area than other stratification heights.When the percentage of the area above the-10℃ layer exceeding 40 dBz in the total cell area is greater than 1% of the threshold, it can be used as an effective early warning indicator to distinguish between thunderstorm cells and non-thunderstorm cells.Comprehensive use of 40 dBz echo top height, -10℃ layer above the echo area of more than 40 dBz and the percentage of the total area of the monomer to test 12 monomer samples, the accuracy rate of thunderstorm forecast is 66.7%.The accuracy rate of non-thunderstorm cell judgment is 83.3%.

Key words: Lightning forecast, Imminent warning, Radar echo, Echo area

CLC Number:

P427.32⁺1

Ming-wei ZHOU,Dao-ping WANG,Long-you LUO,Shao-juan WANG,Bin GUO. Research on lightning forecast and early warning in Shaoyang area based on lightning location and radar data[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2021, 37(3): 117-124.

Figures/Tables 9

Table 1

Fig.1

Table 2

The statistics of 40 dBz echo height and temperature stratification of Shaoyang area in summer of 2018"

编号	日期	层结高度/km			闪电发生前1 h内的所有雷达体扫40 dBz回波顶高超过层结高度的单体占相应总单体数的百分比			闪电前一个体扫周期40 dBz回波顶高/km	是否为雷暴单体
编号	日期	0 ℃	-10 ℃	-20 ℃	0 ℃	-10 ℃	-20 ℃	闪电前一个体扫周期40 dBz回波顶高/km	是否为雷暴单体
1	6月19日	5.6577	7.3018	8.8429	72.73%	63.64%	63.64%	5.7062	是
2	6月19日	5.6577	7.3018	8.8429	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	14.3517	是
3	6月20日	5.6577	7.3018	8.8429	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	10.9581	是
4	6月20日	5.3100	7.2313	8.9231	100.00%	100.00%	45.45%	8.8132	是
5	6月22日	5.2629	7.2033	8.9131	100.00%	100.00%	72.73%	13.4591	是
6	6月22日	5.6300	7.2918	8.8386	100.00%	100.00%	90.91%	14.3391	是
7	7月12日	5.4586	7.2420	8.9131	100.00%	100.00%	81.82%	13.7012	是
8	7月12日	5.4586	7.2420	8.9131	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	11.5308	是
9	7月24日	5.6485	7.1725	8.7623	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	12.0132	是
10	7月30日	5.9100	7.6600	9.0038	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	12.2684	是
11	8月1日	5.4385	7.1255	8.6650	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	16.3485	是
12	8月1日	5.4385	7.1255	8.6650	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	13.7069	是
13	8月5日	5.0871	7.0233	8.5940	100.00%	81.82%	72.73%	13.0202	是
14	8月5日	5.0871	7.0233	8.5940	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	16.0946	是
15	8月12日	5.4388	6.9833	8.4120	100.00%	100.00%	63.64%	9.7452	是
16	8月15日	5.6577	7.4450	9.0086	100.00%	100.00%	72.73%	10.9229	是
17	8月15日	5.6829	7.4550	9.0121	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	15.4200	是
18	6月22日	5.2629	7.2033	8.9131	100.00%	72.73%	54.55%	15.8663	否
19	6月23日	5.6300	7.2918	8.8386	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	6.1692	否
20	7月12日	5.4586	7.2420	8.9131	100.00%	90.91%	72.73%	19.2115	否
21	7月24日	5.3525	7.2233	8.8386	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	15.0925	否
22	7月30日	5.4671	7.1255	8.6700	63.64%	63.64%	54.55%	5.3286	否
23	8月5日	5.0871	7.0233	8.5940	90.91%	18.18%	18.18%	5.0450	否
24	8月12日	5.4388	6.9833	8.4120	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	11.4876	否
25	8月15日	5.6577	7.4450	9.0086	100.00%	81.82%	63.64%	6.5516	否
26	8月16日	5.6829	7.4550	9.0121	100.00%	100.00%	54.55%	9.0001	否

Table 2

Table 3

Table 4

Table 5

Fig.2

Table 6

Table 7

References 24

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编号	S₃₀			S₄₀			S₅₀
编号	S_30t0	S_30t-10	S_30t-20	S_40t0	S_40t-10	S_40t-20	S_50t0	S_50t-10	S_50t-20
1	0.36	0.80	0.87	0.70	0.98	0.84	0.61	0.85	0.26
2	0.53	0.52	0.63	0.31	0.47	0.61	-0.39	-0.17	0.35
3	0.10	0.41	0.31	0.32	0.03	0.10	-0.16	0.23	-0.02
4	0.71	0.43	0.72	0.60	0.38	0.89	0.88	0.88	0.87
5	0.18	0.01	0.53	0.28	0.05	0.18	-0.15	-0.10	-0.19
6	0.55	0.84	0.71	0.46	0.62	0.48	-0.17	-	-
7	0.96	0.52	0.89	0.85	0.30	0.76	0.40	-0.18	0.28
8	0.43	0.14	0.24	0.43	0.41	0.54	0.20	-0.24	0.60
9	0.29	0.35	0.09	0.89	0.23	0.37	0.65	0.24	-0.60
10	0.37	0.68	0.49	0.45	0.65	0.26	-0.37	-0.30	-0.10
11	0.33	0.33	0.02	0.40	0.27	0.44	0.29	-0.07	-0.12
12	0.77	0.74	0.11	0.74	0.98	0.33	0.47	0.73	-0.86
13	0.49	0.37	0.38	0.51	0.19	0.50	-0.07	-0.40	-0.20
14	0.15	0.81	0.76	0.67	0.98	0.86	0.78	0.69	0.93
15	0.35	0.14	0.03	0.31	0.12	0.30	-0.12	-0.13	0.29
16	0.02	0.06	0.33	0.35	0.37	0.41	0.32	0.21	0.49
17	0.21	0.82	0.51	0.71	0.71	0.78	0.35	-0.46	-
总体	0.88	0.83	0.81	0.85	0.89	0.84	0.43	0.12	0.20
平均值	0.84			0.86			0.25

	拟合方式	拟合方程	F显著度	F_0.005	拟合优度(R²)
线性拟合	S_30t0	S=93.89F+2072.76	44.24	1.43	0.74
	S_40t-10	S=3.39F+211.61	5.53	1.43	0.82
	S_50t0	S=4.06F+78.84	31.82	1.43	0.11
对数拟合	S_30t-20	S=1126.2ln(F)+674.54	201.84	1.43	0.74
	S_40t-10	S=34.04ln(F)+175.41	117.27	1.43	0.813
	S_50t0	S=44.8ln(F)+26.83	124.17	1.43	0.10

编号	T₁或T′₁的占比/(%)	T₂或T′₂的占比/(%)
1	0.00	0.19
2	1.98	2.40
3	0.83	0.98
4	1.03	1.28
5	2.34	4.68
6	0.84	0.60
7	3.67	3.99
8	1.43	1.19
9	3.68	3.72
10	2.39	3.69
11	13.50	12.83
12	7.74	6.99
13	0.75	2.14
14	7.88	5.21
15	1.86	3.40
16	0.52	0.26
17	2.90	2.88
18	0.00	0.59
19	0.00	0.00
20	0.00	0.33
21	2.06	0.52
22	0.00	0.00
23	0.00	0.00
24	22.25	18.16
25	0.00	0.00
26	0.14	0.14

编号	日期	雷暴类型	体扫数目	单体持续时间(北京时间)	地闪次数
1	6月20日	多单体雷暴	12	23:00至21日00:05	75
2	7月24日	孤立雷暴单体	5	12:25-12:49	27
3	7月24日	孤立雷暴单体	4	13:24-13:42	27
4	8月1日	孤立雷暴单体	6	15:20-15:49	32
5	8月1日	多单体雷暴	11	18:57-19:55	94
6	8月15日	多单体雷暴	6	21:07-21:36	124
7	6月20日	非雷暴单体	11	16:14-17:13	－
8	6月22日	非雷暴单体	7	13:21-13:57	－
9	7月12日	非雷暴单体	6	18:43-19:12	－
10	7月24日	非雷暴单体	6	21:14-21:43	－
11	8月1日	非雷暴单体	10	10:32-11:25	－
12	8月12日	非雷暴单体	6	16:55-17:24	－

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Research on lightning forecast and early warning in Shaoyang area based on lightning location and radar data

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编号	日期	温度层高/km		40 dBz回波顶高/km	S_40t-10/km²	P
编号	日期	0 ℃	-10 ℃	40 dBz回波顶高/km	S_40t-10/km²	P
1	6月20日	5.2629	7.2033	8.3562	25	0.25%
2	7月24日	5.6485	7.1725	12.1863	19	0.68%
3	7月24日	5.6485	7.1725	9.6562	274	6.39%
4	8月1日	5.4385	7.1255	14.3517	806	14.55%
5	8月1日	5.4385	7.1255	12.6294	276	2.97%
6	8月15日	5.6829	7.4550	15.4239	238	1.98%
7	6月20日	5.3100	7.2313	17.5659	16	0.45%
8	6月22日	5.2629	7.2033	7.4964	2	0.11%
9	7月12日	5.4586	7.2420	7.6642	23	0.07%
10	7月24日	5.3525	7.2233	7.1551	0	0.00%
11	8月1日	5.4385	7.1255	4.5162	0	0.00%
12	8月12日	5.6577	7.4450	13.5397	322	27.54%