1961—2020年辽宁省气候年景分析及综合气候年景评价

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2023.06.013

Abstract

Abstract:

The data from 61 national meteorological stations in Liaoning province from 1961 to 2020 was selected, covering 60 years of daily precipitation, temperature, and weather phenomena. Based on the climatic characteristics of Liaoning province, evaluation indices for flood, drought, cold, heat, and blizzard climate conditions were established, and an integrated annual climate assessment model for Liaoning province was constructed. This model enables quantitative assessments of individual climate factors such as flood, drought, low temperature, high temperature, and blizzard, as well as an integrated annual climate assessment. The results indicate that over the past 60 years, the appearance of high-temperature years in Liaoning province has significantly intensified, while cold-weather and blizzard years have significantly weakened. There are no significant trends for the appearance of drought and heavy rainfall years. The comprehensive climate outlook shows a decadal oscillation cycle of about 15 years, with a significant quasi-3-year interannual oscillation cycle since the 1980s. Verification of the assessment results through historically significant meteorological and climate events, disaster occurrence, and practical applications in operations indicates that the established annual climate assessment method is reasonable and can be used for monitoring and evaluating the climate outlook in Liaoning province.

Key words: Climate evaluation, Entropy weight method, Climate anomaly

CLC Number:

P468.0⁺2

Yitong LIN,Xiaoyu ZHOU,Chunyu ZHAO,Qian LI,Yihe FANG,Rong LIN,Dajun WANG. Analysis of annual climate and assessment of integrated annual climate from 1961 to 2020 in Liaoning province[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2023, 39(6): 105-111.

Figures/Tables 6

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Table 2

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References 23

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百分位数/(%)	综合强度等级	评估结果
P≤50	5	一般
50 < P≤80	4	中等
80 < P≤95	3	较强
95 < P≤98	2	强
P>98	1	特强

百分位数/(%)	气候年景等级	气候年景评价
P≤10	1	好
10＜P≤30	2	较好
30＜P≤70	3	正常年份
70＜P≤90	4	较差
P＞90	5	差

权重	雨涝	干旱	低温	高温	暴雪
ω	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1

灾损类别	年景指数	相关系数
旱灾	干旱年景指数	0.65
水灾	雨涝年景指数	0.82
雪灾	暴雪年景指数	0.72
总灾损	综合气候年景指数	0.66

Analysis of annual climate and assessment of integrated annual climate from 1961 to 2020 in Liaoning province

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