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    上海地区两次强对流天气过程灾害成因及预警研究

    Comparison research on the causes and warnings of two severe convection events over Shanghai

    • 摘要: 对2014年8月24日和9月1日上海地区两次强对流灾害天气过程的环流背景、动力条件及水汽条件、不稳定层结、多普勒雷达观测等方面进行了对比分析,研究两次强对流过程的成因,并对强对流天气进行了预报预警。结果表明:上海地区8·24过程和9·01过程均发生在副热带高压边缘,均有明显的低空急流输送,两次强对流过程预报的开始时间均较实况偏早。8·24过程为槽前型强对流过程,冷锋前飑线和中尺度阵风锋造成强雷电天气。9·01过程为低涡东移型强对流过程,造成了暴雨天气。槽前型强对流过程高层为强辐散,低层为强辐合,有利于强雷暴的产生;低涡东移型强对流过程湿层深厚,降水时间长有利于产生暴雨。垂直风切变趋势预报对雷暴维持和加强具有较好的指示作用。槽前型强对流过程伴随强垂直切变配合,产生区域性强雷暴;低涡东移型强对流过程垂直切变较弱,产生区域性对流暴雨。槽前型对流系统影响时间短,需重点分析地面中小尺度低压辐合区的发展,低涡东移型强对流过程的降水起始时间与暖区对流性降水有关。

       

      Abstract: Comparison analysis were carried on using large-scale circulation,dynamic and vapor condition,instability stratification,and radar data to evaluate the formation reasons of the two severe convection events on August 24 and September 1,2014 over Shanghai,and a further warning research was conducted as well.The results show that the two events happened at the edge of subtropical high with obvious low-level jets.The events start times in forecasting were earlier than real conditions.As for the differences,severe convection appeared in front of the trough,accompanied by squall line and mesoscale gust front,causing the thunderstorm on August 24,while the deep moist tongue appeared in severe convection due to low-level vortex moving eastward,causing the long-time rainstorm on September 1,2014.Vertical wind shear is a fine indicator to the maintenance and development of a thunderstorm.The convection in front of the trough coupled with severe vertical shear tends to cause regional thunderstorm,but the convection due to low-level vortex moving eastward coupled with weak vertical shear tends to cause a regional convective rainstorm.Since the affecting time of convection system in front of trough is short,it is necessary to analyze the development of mesoscale and small-scale low pressure convergence.The start time of the convective rainstorm due to low-level vortex moving eastward is related to the warm-zone convective rainstorm.

       

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