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    葫芦岛“8·20”特大暴雨过程多源融合实况插补站点数据适用性评估

    Applicability evaluation of multi-source fusion real-time interpolation station data in the “8·20” extraordinary precipitation process in Huludao

    • 摘要: 利用多源融合网格实况分析产品插补缺测站点观测资料,可以保持降水数据的连续性。选用2024年8月20日05时至24日08时葫芦岛市39个故障站点降水观测数据作为检验源,采用相关分析等方法对多源融合降水网格实况产品插补站点数据进行评估检验。结果表明:实况插补站点数据与站点观测降水误差在±2 mm·h-1以内的占比为83.12%,多源融合实况插补站点数据能较为准确地反映葫芦岛市的降水强度,达到了预期目标。其中,建昌巴什罕站插补结果相对最好,建昌汤神庙站插补结果相对最差;分级检验结果显示,降水强度为20 mm·h-1以下的插补结果较好,误差在±2 mm·h-1以内的结果占比为86.34%,随小时降水强度增大,小时降水的实况插补结果变差,且50 mm·h-1以上的极端降水插补结果偏小。

       

      Abstract: The use of multi-source fusion grid real-time analysis products to interpolate missing station observation data can maintain the continuity of precipitation data.Selecting precipitation observation data from 39 faulty stations in Huludao from 05:00 on August 20,to 08:00 on August 24,2024 as the testing source,and using correlation analysis and other methods to evaluate and test the interpolation station data of multi-source fusion precipitation grid real-time products.The results showed that the proportion of real-time interpolation station data with precipitation observation errors within ±2 mm · h-1 was 83.12%.The multi-source fusion of real-time interpolation station data can accurately reflect the precipitation intensity of Huludao,achieving the expected goal.Among them,the interpolation results of Jianchang Bashhan Station are relatively the best,while the interpolation results of Jianchang Tangshenmiao Station are relatively the worst; The grading test results show that the interpolation results for precipitation intensity below 20 mm · h-1 are good,with 86.34% of the results having an error within ±2 mm · h-1.As the hourly precipitation intensity increases,the actual interpolation results for hourly precipitation deteriorate,and the interpolation results for extreme precipitation above 50 mm ·h-1 are relatively small.

       

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