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    云微物理方案对暖区暴雨预报的影响研究

    Study on the impact of cloud micro-physics schemes on the forecast of warm regions heavy rainfall

    • 摘要: 采用WRFv3.7模式对2018年5月7日福建东南部沿海一次暖区暴雨过程进行预报,选取的5种微物理方案都能较好反映此次降水的落区和量级;进一步对模拟结果较好的Thompson(THOM)和WDM6方案开展云系特征和微物理机制分析。结果表明:WDM6方案对降水的预报优于THOM方案;两种方案对云系宏观特征、液相水成物含量和云滴源汇项的预报有较好一致性;而对冰相水成物的预报差异较大。THOM方案中冰相水成物主要是雪(81.4%),其次是霰(4.8%),冰晶含量很少;WDM6方案中,冰相水成物中雪(29.7%)和霰(33.3%)在总水成物中的占比相当。THOM方案中,地面降水主要来源于液相过程—雨滴碰并云滴增长(58.7%),其次是雪的融化(25.3%);WDM6方案中,雨滴的主要源项是霰的融化(67%),其次是碰并云滴增长(18.4%)。

       

      Abstract: WRFv3.7 model was applied to simulate the warm-sector precipitation process in the coast area of Fujian on May 7,2018.Five selected microphysics schemes all effectively indicated the location and amount of precipitation.The Thompson (THOM) and WDM6 schemes with better simulation results were selected to further analyze the characteristics and micro-physics mechanisms of cloud system.The results showed that the forecast of precipitation in the WDM6 scheme was better than that of the THOM scheme.These two schemes exhibited good consistency in simulating cloud macroscopic characteristics,liquid water content,and cloud sources and sinks.However,some differences existed in simulating ice water content:in the THOM scheme,ice-phase hydrometeor mainly consisted of snow (81.4%),graupel (4.8%),and a small amount of ice.In the WDM6 scheme,snow (29.7%) and graupel (33.3%) account for half of the total aqueous contents.In the THOM scheme,surface precipitation mainly originated from liquid processes within clouds,with rain collecting cloud water (58.7%) as the primary source,followed by snow melting (25.3%).In the WDM6 scheme,the main source of rain was the melting of graupel (67%),followed by the growth of rain collecting cloud water (18.4%).

       

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