高级检索

    1971—2020年吉林省暴雪时空变化特征及过程等级评估

    Spatiotemporal variation characteristics of snowstorm and assessment level of snowstorm process in Jilin Province from 1971 to 2020

    • 摘要: 基于吉林省1971—2020年55个国家级地面气象观测站逐日降水量、积雪深度、极大风速、最大风速、最低气温等资料,采用小波分析、Mann-Kendall(M-K)检验、滑动T检验等方法分析了吉林省暴雪时空变化特征。建立了暴雪过程指数,得到暴雪过程评估等级指标并进行验证。结果表明:吉林省暴雪主要集中在11月,其次是3月,暴雪站次和累积暴雪量均呈显著上升趋势,2006年后增加速度均较快,其中2011—2020年代最多;暴雪站次和累积暴雪量在2000—2016年均呈3 a的显著周期变化;暴雪站次在1987年发生突变,突变后暴雪年平均站次较突变前增加了15.7站次;暴雪站次和累积暴雪量均呈由平原地区向山区逐渐递增的分布;东南部暴雪过程明显多于中西部,且特强暴雪过程多分布于东南部;分区域的暴雪过程评估等级指标经验证能够较好地反映吉林省暴雪过程的综合影响程度。

       

      Abstract: Based on the data of daily precipitation,snow depth,extreme wind speed,maximum wind speed and minimum temperature of 55 national meteorological observation stations in Jilin Province from 1971 to 2020,then wavelet analysis,Mann-Kendall(M-K) mutation test,sliding T test and other methods were used to study and analyze the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of snowstorms in Jilin Province; the index of snowstorm process was established by grey correlation method,and divided to get the subregion’s assessment level index of snowstorm process in Jilin Province and validated.The results show that,the snowstorms in Jilin Province are mainly concentrated in November,then March,and both snowstorm stations and accumulated snowstorm amount show a significant steady upward trend,the increase rate is faster after 2006,and the most frequent is in the 2011-2020s; both snowstorm stations and accumulated snowstorm amount show a significant periodic change of 3a in 2000-2016; snowstorm stations change abruptly in 1987,and the average annual of snowstorm stations rose by 15.7 after the mutation; snowstorm stations and accumulated snowstorm amount both show a gradual increase in distribution from plain region to mountainous region; the snowstorm processes in the southeastern region are significantly more than that in the central and western regions,and the extra strong snowstorm processes are mostly distributed in the southeastern region; the subregional assessment level index of snowstorm process can reflect the comprehensive influence degree of snowstorm process in Jilin Province,which is of great significance to improve the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation in Northeast China and deal with extreme disastrous weather.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回