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    黑龙江省区域性暴雨过程定量化评估及时空特征

    Quantitative assessment and spatial-temporal characteristics of regional rainstorm process in Heilongjiang Province

    • 摘要: 利用1961—2020年黑龙江省71个国家地面观测站逐日降水量资料,选取暴雨过程中最大过程降水量、最大日降水量、暴雨过程范围、单日最大范围和持续时间作为评估指标,构建区域性暴雨过程综合评估模型,分析其时空变化特征,并进行定量化评估。结果表明:1961—2020年黑龙江省区域性暴雨事件共发生123次,呈显著上升趋势,主要出现在7月和8月,91.1%的过程持续1 d;降雨中心主要集中在伊春南部、哈尔滨大部、牡丹江南部、鸡西中部以及绥化西部,降水中心呈广发、多发态势;20世纪90年代和最近10 a区域性暴雨事件的综合强度最高,弱、一般、较强、强、特强等级过程占比分别为66%、17%、9%、4%和4%;特强等级过程在最近10 a发生的强度和频率比较突出,且受北上台风的影响较大。

       

      Abstract: Based on the daily precipitation data of 71 national ground observation stations in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2020,the criteria for determining regional rainstorm processes are defined.The maximum process precipitation,maximum daily precipitation,process range,maximum range of a single day and duration of a rainstorm process are selected as evaluation indicators to build a comprehensive evaluation model for regional rainstorm processes,and analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of regional rainstorm,And quantitatively evaluate it.The results show that:A total of 123 regional rainstorm events occurred in Heilongjiang Province,showing a significant upward trend,mainly in July and August from 1961 to 2020,and 91.1% of the process lasted for one day;The rainfall centers are mainly concentrated in the southern part of Yichun,most of Harbin,the southern part of Mudanjiang,the central part of Jixi,and the western part of Suihua;The comprehensive intensity in the 1990s and the past decade was the highest,with weak,moderate,strong,stronger,and extremely strong grade processes accounting for 66%,17%,9%,4%,and 4%;In recent ten years,the intensity and frequency of extra-strong processes are more prominent,and they are greatly affected by northward typhoons.

       

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