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    辽宁大豆种植气候适宜度变化分析

    Analysis of Climate Suitability Changes for Soybean Cultivation in Liaoning Province

    • 摘要: 辽宁不仅是我国大豆主产区,也是气候变化敏感区,厘清气候变化对大豆种植气候适宜度变化的影响对指导大豆生产具有重要意义。本文基于辽宁省52个气候站新气候态(1991—2020年)与旧气候态(1981—2010年)的气象数据和大豆发育期资料,应用基于温度、降水量和日照时数等关键气候因子的综合气候适宜度模型,分析了辽宁省大豆种植气候适宜度的变化特征。结果表明:新旧气候态对比,大豆生长季94%的区域温度适宜度呈上升趋势,一半的地区通过了显著性检验;61%的区域降水适宜度呈下降趋势;日照适宜度下降和上升区域各半;65%的区域综合气候适宜度呈上升趋势,整体由旧气候态非显著下降转为新气候态非显著上升,上升区域从局部扩展至辽宁大部地区。日照是影响大豆生长季气候适宜度的最主要因素,贡献率最大,其次是温度和降水。综上,大豆生长季综合气候适宜度整体转好,温度适宜度明显改善,降水适宜度变差,日照适宜度好坏各半,因此,在综合考虑区域气候特征和气象灾害风险等因素的基础上,可考虑适度扩大种植面积,并合理规划种植规模。

       

      Abstract: Liaoning Province,a key soybean-producing and climate-sensitive region in China,is increasingly affected by climate change on soybean cultivation.This study investigates the impact of climatic variability on soybean climatic suitability by analyzing meteorological and phenological data from 52 weather stations across the province.The analysis compares the recent climatic normal (1991-2020) with the previous period (1981-2010),using a comprehensive climatic suitability model that integrates temperature,precipitation,and sunshine duration to evaluate spatiotemporal changes.Results show that 94% of regions experienced improved temperature suitability during the growing season,with statistically significant increases in half of these areas.In contrast,61% of regions exhibited a decline in precipitation suitability,while sunshine suitability presented mixed trends,with 50% of areas showing improvement and 50% showing deterioration.Overall,65% of regions demonstrated enhanced comprehensive climatic suitability,shifting from a non-significant decline under the old normal to a non-significant upward trend under the new normal,with favorable conditions expanding across most of Liaoning.Among the three climatic factors,sunshine duration contributed most significantly to overall suitability,followed by temperature and precipitation.In conclusion,although precipitation suitability declined and sunshine suitability exhibited equal proportions of improvement and deterioration,the overall climatic suitability for soybean cultivation in Liaoning has improved,largely due to increased temperature suitability.Strategic expansion of soybean cultivation,tailored to regional climatic characteristics and meteorological risks,is recommended to strengthen production resilience under future climate scenarios.

       

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