基于中尺度模式的辽宁阵风预报改进研究
Research on the improvement of gust forecast in Liaoning based on mesoscale model
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摘要: 为提升阵风预报准确率,利用2020年5月至2021年7月辽宁陆地和海上区域的站点小时平均风和阵风风速、睿图东北中尺度模式粗糙度及低层风速,基于ECMWF (简称EC)模式阵风预报方法,针对不同下垫面及不同风力等级计算了各站点的湍流项和对流项系数,建立阵风预报方程,并与EC阵风预报效果进行对比。结果表明:湍流系数陆地通常为1~4,海区为3~8;对流系数陆地取值接近于0,海区为0.2~0.3。随平均风速增大,陆地湍流系数增大,海区减小;对流系数各区域均随风力增大而减小。系数计算结果较EC设定偏小,改进后阵风客观预报较EC阵风预报风速误差减小1~3 m·s-1,预报误差缩小20%~50%,风力等级预报准确率提升10%~20%。阵风客观预报在陆地区域误差缩减更多,部分站点在强风时预报准确率仍有较好表现,体现出中尺度模式在阵风预报改进中的优势。Abstract: In order to improve the accuracy of gust forecast,this paper used ECMWF gust forecasting method to calculate the turbulence and convection coefficients for each sub-surfaces and wind levels,and establish the gust forecast equations based on hourly wind observation data,friction velocity and low-level wind speed of RMAPS-Dongbei mesoscale model for Liaoning region from May 2020 to July 2021.Its performance was compared with that of the ECMWF gust forecast.The results show that turbulence coefficients generally range from 1 to 4 over land and from 3 to 8 over sea,convection coefficients are close to 0 over land and range from 0.2 to 0.3 over sea.Turbulence coefficients increase with increasing wind speed over land but decrease over sea,convection coefficients decrease with increasing wind force in all regions.The calculated coefficients are generally smaller than those specified in ECMWF original settings.Compared with the ECMWF gust forecast,the improved objective gust forecast reduces wind speed errors by 1~3 m·s-1,decreases forecast errors by 20%~50%,and improves wind force level forecast accuracy by 10%~20%.Error reductions are more pronounced over land,and some stations still exhibit good forecast performance under strong wind conditions,demonstrating the advantages of mesoscale models in improving gust forecasts.
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