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    基于TOPSIS法的湖北省高速公路低能见度天气灾害风险区划

    Risk zoning of low-visibility weather disasters on expressways in Hubei Province based on the TOPSIS method

    • 摘要: 低能见度天气是影响高速公路安全通行最重要的气象灾害,开展风险区划可为灾害防范提供科学依据。基于2019—2021年湖北省高速公路临近的国家气象站和交通气象站能见度数据、湖北省低能见度天气交通管制资料及各地市年度客货运输总量,采用TOPSIS法计算低能见度天气灾害评估指标和得分,利用ArcGIS软件绘制湖北省高速公路低能见度天气灾害风险区划图,探讨湖北省高速公路各路段的低能见度天气灾害风险等级。结果表明:湖北省高速公路低能见度天气具有明显的时间变化特征,冬季和春季高发,秋季、夏季较少。在低能见度天气最为集中的冬季,高风险区涵盖湖北省恩施州及中北部的大部地区高速路段。将湖北省高速公路低能见度天气综合风险等级分为5级,中等风险及以上区域占2/3,其中风险等级很高的区域位于恩施州除巴东、鹤峰外的大部,襄阳、随州、荆门、荆州沙市一带,以及武汉中南部。

       

      Abstract: Low-visibility weather is one of the most significant meteorological disasters affecting the safe operation of expressways and risk zoning can provide a scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation.Based on visibility data from national meteorological stations and traffic meteorological stations near expressways in Hubei Province from 2019 to 2021,low-visibility weather traffic control data in Hubei Province,and annual passenger and freight transportation volumes from various cities,the TOPSIS method was employed to calculate the assessment indicators and scores for low-visibility weather disasters; ArcGIS software was used to create a risk zoning map for low-visibility weather disasters on expressways in Hubei Province; and the risk levels of different expressway sections were analyzed.The results show that low-visibility weather on expressways in Hubei Province exhibits significant temporal variations,with frequent occurrences in winter and spring,and relatively fewer occurrences in autumn and summer.During winter,when low-visibility weather is most concentrated,high-risk areas include most expressway sections in Enshi Prefecture and large parts of central and northern Hubei Province.The comprehensive risk levels of low-visibility weather disasters on expressways in Hubei Province are classified into five levels,among which areas with moderate risk and above account for approximately two-thirds of the total.Regions with very high-risk levels are mainly located in most parts of Enshi Prefecture (except Badong and Hefeng),the areas around Xiangyang,Suizhou,Jingmen,and Shashi in Jingzhou,as well as the central and southern parts of Wuhan.

       

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