辽宁省大豆生长季旱涝急转时空特征分析
Analysis of the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought and flood sharp change in soybean growing season in Liaoning Province
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摘要: 为揭示大豆生长季旱涝急转的变化情况,利用1961—2020年辽宁地区44个气象站的逐日气象资料,采用日尺度标准化前期降水蒸散指数(Standardized Antecedent Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index,SAPEI)分析大豆各发育阶段旱涝急转事件的时空演化特征。结果表明:SAPEI适用于辽宁大豆旱涝急转事件的识别。在大豆全生育期内,旱转涝事件明显多于涝转旱事件,并且两种事件有不同的易发时段和易发区域。旱转涝事件主要发生在大豆分枝至鼓粒阶段,占68%;涝转旱事件主要发生在大豆出苗至分枝阶段,占66%。空间分布上,大豆旱转涝灾害主要分布在辽宁西北和南部地区,涝转旱灾害主要分布在辽宁西部地区。辽宁省大豆的旱涝灾害风险具有明显的时间演变特征,2014年后旱转涝灾害明显增加,影响范围也有所扩大。基于对前期农田土壤水分收支及大豆不同发育期需水特性的考量,SAPEI指数可有效识别旱涝急转的变化情况。Abstract: To accurately identify the occurrence and change characteristics of droughts and floods during the soybean growing season in Liaoning Province,daily meteorological data from 44 meteorological stations in Liaoning Province from 1961 to 2020 were used to analyze the development of droughts and floods for soybeans in the region.This analysis was based on the daily-scale Standardized Antecedent Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SAPEI).The results show that SAPEI is suitable for identifying abrupt drought-flood events in Liaoning’s soybean-growing areas.During the entire soybean growth period,the number of drought-flood transition events was significantly higher than that of flood-to-drought transition events,and these two types of events have different prone periods and prone regions.Drought-to-flood transitions mainly occurred from the branching stage to the pod-filling stage,accounting for 68%,while flood-drought transitions primarily occurred from the emergence stage to the branching stage,accounting for 66%.In terms of regional distribution,soybean drought-flood disasters in Liaoning Province are mainly concentrated in the northwestern and southern regions.After 2014,the overall risk of drought-flood events for soybeans in Liaoning Province increased.The SAPEI Index can effectively identify the changes of abrupt drought-flood disasters,because it considers the previous farmland soil moisture budget and the water requirement characteristics of soybeans at different growth stages.
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