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    辽宁玉米春播气象服务效益定量评价方法研究

    Research on quantitative evaluation method of meteorological service benefits for spring maize planting in Liaoning Province

    • 摘要: 农业气象服务效益评价是改进气象为农服务方式,提高服务能力和水平的重要依据。本研究2023年在辽宁省锦州市和铁岭市设置6个试验地点,同步开展玉米春播气象服务效益评价对比试验,通过观测气象要素、玉米发育期、出苗率、净光合速率、水肥管理等要素,结合作物模型模拟和田间调查,从时间、管理、产量和经济效益四个方面,定量化评价玉米春播气象服务效益。结果表明:对照农户自管区,气象服务区玉米播种日期平均提前13 d,全生育期多10 d,可多利用活动积温86.0℃;平均出苗率提高4.7%;玉米抗夏旱能力增强,叶片净光合速率提高16 μmolCO2·m-2·s-1,叶片萎蔫现象延迟2 h以上;通过作物模型验证,玉米发育期观测值与模拟值的归一化均方根误差和一致性指数分别为1.55%~1.78%和0.77~0.90,玉米产量观测值与模拟值的归一化均方根误差和一致性指数分别为7.10%和0.83,均具有较好的一致性,表明试验结果可信;春播气象服务对玉米增产和净收益的贡献率分别为9.2%和12.6%。

       

      Abstract: Evaluation of the benefits of agricultural meteorological services is a crucial basis for improving the agricultural-meteorological service methods and enhancing service capabilities and effectiveness.In this study,six experimental sites were established in Jinzhou and Tieling cities,Liaoning Province,where a one year-long comparative experiment on spring maize planting meteorological services was conducted in 2023.By observing meteorological elements,such as maize growth stages,emergence rate,net photosynthetic rate,water and fertilizer management,crop model simulations and field surveys,the benefits of spring maize planting meteorological services were quantitatively evaluated from four aspects: timing,management,yield,and economics benefit.The results indicate that in 2023,compared with farmer-managed experimental maize production plots (farmer-managed control plots),the experimental plots in fine-tuned spring maize planting meteorological services (meteorological service plots) showed an average advancement of maize planting dates by 13 days,an extension of the entire growth period by 10 days,utilization of accumulated growing degree days increase by 86.0 ℃.The average emergence rate increased by 4.7%.The drought resistance of maize during summer was enhanced,with an increase of 16 μmol CO2 m-2·s-1 in leaf net photosynthetic rate in responsive plots and a noticeable delay in leaf wilting exceeding more than 2 hours.Validation of the crop model showed that the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) and the concordance index between the observed and simulated maize growth stages ranged from 1.55% to 1.78% and from 0.77 to 0.90,respectively.For maize yield,the NRMSE was 7.10%,with a concordance index of 0.83,indicating a good consistency between observed and simulated values,and confirming the reliability of the experimental results.The contributions of spring maize planting meteorological services to yield increase and net income is 9.2% and 12.6%,respectively.

       

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