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    西藏道路结冰特征及预报方法研究

    Study on characteristics and forecasting methods of road icing in Xizang

    • 摘要: 利用2018—2021年西藏自治区交通气象站逐时观测资料,分析了西藏道路结冰和气象要素特征,构建了道路结冰预报模型并进行了准确率检验。结果表明:西藏道路结冰日数呈西北向东南递减分布,结冰日数与海拔高度呈正相关,海拔越高结冰日数越多;道路结冰由降雪(雨夹雪/雪)和路面积雪引起,其中降雪引起的道路结冰日数占西藏道路结冰总日数的58%,积雪引起道路结冰日数占比42%;西藏西北部以积雪引起的结冰为主,中部及东南部以降雪引起的结冰为主;道路结冰发生在9月至次年6月,1月与2月结冰日数最多,结冰时段主要集中在02:00至11:00;道路结冰发生时,地面温度、气温、风速在0%~75%分位数区间范围内分别低于-2 ℃、1 ℃、8 m·s -1,相对湿度、过去24 h降雪量、积雪深度在25%~100%分位数的区间范围内分别高于50%、0.1 mm、0 cm,说明在地面温度与气温低、风速小、相对湿度高、且有降雪或积雪时的气象条件下,有利于道路结冰;基于上述特征构建的西藏道路结冰预报模型,共划分4个指数等级,经近2 a单站道路结冰分级预报检验后,各等级平均预报准确率达77%。

       

      Abstract: Using hourly observation data from traffic meteorological stations in Xizang from 2018 to 2021,this study analyzed the characteristics of road icing and meteorological factors in Xizang.A road icing forecasting model was constructed and its accuracy was verified.The results showed that the number of road icing days in Xizang decreased from the northwest to the southeast and was positively correlated with altitude.Road icing was caused by snowfall (sleet or snow) and road snow cover,with snowfall icing accounting for 58% of the total road icing days in Xizang,and snow cover icing accounting for 42%.Specifically,the northwestern part of Xizang was dominated by snow cover icing,while the central and southeastern parts were dominated by snowfall icing.Road icing occurred from September to June of the following year,with the highest number of icing days in January and February,and the icing period was mainly concentrated from 02:00 to 11:00.During road icing events,the 0%-75% quantile ranges of ground temperature,air temperature,and wind speed were below -2 ℃,1 ℃,and 8 m·s-1,respectively; while the 25%-100% quantile ranges of relative humidity,24h accumulated snowfall and snow depth were above 50%,0.1 mm,and 0 cm,respectively.This indicated that meteorological conditions with low ground and air temperatures,low wind speed,high relative humidity,and snowfall or snow cover were favorable for road icing.Based on the above characteristics,the Xizang road icing forecasting model was constructed and divided into 4 index levels.After verifying the graded forecast of road icing at single stations in the past 2 years,the average forecast accuracy of each level reached 77%.

       

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