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    北方单作区马铃薯高温干旱及其复合事件的时空变化趋势

    Spatiotemporal variation trends of high temperature,drought,and their compound events of potato in the North Single planting region

    • 摘要: 气候变暖对北方单作区马铃薯生产造成严重的负面影响。本文基于该区域676个气象站1961—2020年气象数据,使用水分亏缺指数(CWDI)、热积温(HDD)和高温干旱复合指数(CHDI)定量分析了马铃薯不同生育阶段高温干旱及其复合事件的时空变化趋势。结果表明:北方单作区马铃薯生育期内CWDI自西向东逐渐降低,块茎形成阶段的干旱胁迫程度最高,1991—2020年全区平均CWDI较1961—1990年有所下降。马铃薯全生育期HDD随纬度升高而降低,青海、辽宁和黑龙江马铃薯生育期HDD低于其他地区,1991—2020年马铃薯生育期内的HDD较1961—1990年增加了25%~38%。青海和东北地区的马铃薯较少受高温干旱复合事件的影响,其他地区马铃薯高温干旱复合强度等级多为轻度和中度,新疆、陕西和河北马铃薯高温干旱复合强度等级以中度和重度为主。气候变暖使该区马铃薯受高温干旱复合影响的面积增加了64%,而重度高温干旱复合事件的发生面积增加了93%。除新疆外,全区马铃薯产量与营养生长阶段CWDI及块茎形成阶段HDD和CHDI均呈显著负相关关系(P<0.05)。本文研究结果可为气候变暖背景下北方单作区马铃薯规避气候风险和保证产量稳定提供科学参考。

       

      Abstract: Climate warming had a significant adverse impact on potato growing in the North Single planting region.Based on the meteorological data from 676 stations during 1961-2020 and potato phenology information,this study quantified the spatiotemporal trends of high temperatures,droughts,and their compound events across different growth periods of potato in the North Single planting region by using the crop water deficit index (CWDI),heat degree days (HDD),and compound heat-drought index (CHDI).Results indicate that the CWDI during the whole growth period of potato in North Single planting region gradually decreases from west to east.The CWDI during tuber formation period is higher than during the vegetative growth period and tuber bulking period.The average CWDI during 1991-2020 shows a decrease trend compared to that during 1961-1990.The HDD during the whole growth period of potato generally decreases with increasing latitude.The HDD in Qinghai,Liaoning,and Heilongjiang is lower than in other regions.From 1991-2020,the HDD during the vegetative growth,tuber formation,and tuber bulking period of potato in the region increased by 25-38% compared to the 1961-1990 period.Potato planted in Qinghai and northeastern China are less affected by compound heat-drought events,while the intensity of compound heat-drought event is typically slight and moderate in other regions.However,the intensity of compound heat-drought event in Xinjiang,Shaanxi,and Hebei are predominantly moderate and severe.Climate warming have increaded the area naffected by compound heat-drought events for potato planting in this region by 64%,while the area experiencing severe compound heat-drought events has increased by 93%.Excluding Xinjiang,potato yields in North Single planting region exhibit a significant negative correlation with the CWDI during the vegetative growth period and the HDD and CHDI during the tuber formation period (P<0.05).This study quantifies the spatiotemporal trends of drought,high temperature,and the compound heat-drought event across various growth periods of potato in North Single planting region,and providing scientific insights to support climate risk avoidance and yield stability of potato under climate warming.

       

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