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    东北冷涡业务判识标准探究

    Operational identification criteria for the Northeast China Cold Vortex

    • 摘要: 针对目前东北冷涡判识方法中存在的问题,利用1961—2021年ERA5再分析资料,探究一种物理意义明确,兼顾影响程度、可操作性强的东北冷涡判识标准。研究结论显示:结合文献分析和已有的业务规范,综合考虑东北冷涡的影响程度、出现频次以及冷涡来源等情况,确定东北冷涡监测关键区为105°~145°E、35°~60°N。定义东北冷涡中心南侧10个纬度处的500 hPa位势高度与东北冷涡中心位势高度的差为东北冷涡强度指数,将复杂的物理量诊断和指标计算量化为强度阈值,形成了弱、中、强三个等级的强度判别指标。利用近60 a的资料验证发现:大多数东北冷涡中心出现在45°~55°N,5—6月是东北冷涡最活跃阶段,中等强度东北冷涡具有频发性,强东北冷涡具有极端性的特点,与以往关于东北冷涡活动特征研究得到的结论基本一致,说明此东北冷涡业务判识标准具有科学性和合理性。

       

      Abstract: Targeting the existing problems in the current identification methods for the Northeast China Cold Vortex (NCCV),this study utilizes the ERA5 reanalysis data from 1961 to 2021 to explore a set of NCCV identification criteria with clear physical significance,taking into account the degree of influence and strength of operability.By combining literature analysis with existing operational specifications,while also comprehensively accounting for the degree of impact,frequency of occurrence,and sources of the NCCV,this study concludes that the key area for monitoring the NCCV is 105°-145°E,35°-60°N.The NCCV intensity index (Gd) is defined as the difference between the 500 hPa geopotential height at 10 latitudes south of the NCCV center and the 500 hPa geopotential height of the NCCV center.This index quantifies the complex diagnosis of physical quantities based on intensity thresholds,forming an intensity discrimination index with three levels:weak(Gd≤16),moderate (16<Gd<33),and strong (Gd≥33).Data from the past 60 years indicate that most of the NCCV centers appear within 45°-55°N,with peak NCCV activity occurring in May-June.Moderate NCCV is characterized by high frequency,whereas strong NCCV exhibits extreme characteristics.These findings are consistent with those of previous studies on the characteristics of NCCV activity,thus confirming the scientific and rational basis of our proposed NCCV identification criteria.

       

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