不同ENSO背景下2021年和2023年汉江流域秋汛期降水特征及成因分析
Analysis of precipitation characteristics and causes of autumn flood season in the Hanjiang River Basin in 2021 and 2023 in ENSO events
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摘要: 不同ENSO背景下,2021年和2023年汉江流域秋汛期(9—10月)均发生了较严重秋汛。本文基于汉江流域1961—2023年秋汛期降水量数据、NCEP再分析资料、海温资料,采用相关分析、回归分析、T-N波作用通量等方法,对比分析了2021及2023年汉江流域秋汛期降水特征、大气环流和海温的异同。结果表明:汉江流域2021年及2023年秋汛期降水量均异常偏多,分别居于历史第3位和第5位;导致两年降水偏多的大气环流在东亚中纬度地区相似,自西向东呈现出“西低—东高”型分布,异常中心位于巴尔喀什湖至贝加尔湖西部、渤海至西北太平洋。西太平洋副热带高压偏强且西伸明显;2021年与2023年赤道中东太平洋、热带北大西洋海温存在明显差异。2021年,发展的拉尼娜和偏暖的热带北大西洋,两者协同作用,形成了多雨环流;2023年,厄尔尼诺发展,但热带北大西洋达1961年以来历史同期最暖,其影响超过厄尔尼诺,占主导作用,造成降水偏多。热带北大西洋独立偏暖时,北大西洋海温自北向南呈“暖—冷—暖”分布,激发出向北、向东传播的Rossby波列,自热带北大西洋传至东亚沿岸,加深巴尔喀什湖至贝加尔湖的低槽,增强渤海至西北太平洋的高压脊,促使东亚地区呈现出“西低—东高”的环流配置。相关研究对不同海温外强迫因子协同背景下的汉江秋汛降水预测具有较好的参考意义。Abstract: Serious autumn floods occurred in the autumn flood season(September-October) in the Hanjiang River Basin in 2021 and 2023 under different ENSO backgrounds,this paper compared and analyzed the characteristics and impacts of precipitation during the autumn flood season in 2021 and 2023,as well as the similarities and differences between atmospheric circulation and external SST forcing in these two years by using correlation analysis and regression analysis,based on the NCEP reanalysiss data,and the NOAA sea temperature data.The results show that:The autumn flood season precipitation in 2021 and 2023 in the Hanjiang River basin ranked third and fifth in intensity in the same period in history,respectively.The atmospheric circulations in 2021 and 2023 were similar,and the northeastern hemisphere circulation field presented a "low-high" distribution from west to east.The anomaly center is located from Lake Balkhash to the west of Lake Baikal and from the Bohai Sea to the northwest Pacific Ocean.The west Pacific subtropical high is stronger,and the westward extension is obvious.The sea temperature varied obviously in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean and in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean(TNA).In 2021,the developed La Niña SST distribution was reflected,with the warmer TNA led to the emergence of the autumn flood rainy circulation.In 2023,TNA reached the highest temperature in history,and the synergistic effect of the two had stronger influence than that of El Niño.Therefore,the Bohai Sea to the Japanese archipelago in China was controlled by an obvious anticyclone,and the Balkhash to Baikal Lake presented a low trough,showing an obvious autumn flood precipitation circulation configuration pattern.This research findings can provide references for the prediction of precipitation of autumn flood season in Hanjiang River Basin under the different backgrounds of external SST forcing.
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