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    公里级再分析资料相对湿度在湖北的适用性评估

    Applicability evaluation of relative humidity in kilometer level reanalysis data in Hubei Province

    • 摘要: 使用湖北省82个国家站观测数据,通过分析相关系数、均方根误差(RMSE)、平均偏差(MB)等指标,对2008—2021年中国大气实况分析产品CARAS-1km(China Atmospheric Realtime Analysis Products)再分析资料日平均、日最大、日最小相对湿度在湖北省的适用性进行评估,进一步探讨不同季节湖北省5个分区的适用性。结果表明: CARAS日平均、日最小相对湿度在湖北区域适用性较好,空间相关系数分别为0.91和0.94,日平均相对湿度以正偏差为主,日最小、日最大相对湿度相反,三组相对湿度在鄂西南适用性较好;日平均、日最小相对湿度(4—10月)适用性较好,日最大相对湿度相反;日平均相对湿度冬季在鄂东北适用性最好,其余季节为鄂西南,日最小相对湿度在春、夏季鄂东北适用性最好,日最大相对湿度夏季适用性最好区域为鄂西北,其余季节为鄂西南;日变化中,时间相关系数在13时(北京时)最大,均方根误差在10时最小,01—11时为负偏差,12—23时为正偏差,三组评估要素的日变化特征在各区域变化趋势基本一致。高精度CARAS再分析资料分辨率优于目前主流再分析资料,通过科学评估CARAS相对湿度的适用性,以期为CARAS相对湿度数据的应用及订正提供科学参考。总体而言,日平均、日最大相对湿度在湖北适用性好,可为精细化气象服务等方面提供数据支撑。

       

      Abstract: Using observation data from 82 national meteorological stations in Hubei Province,this study evaluates the applicability of daily average,daily maximum,and daily minimum relative humidity of CARAS-1km (China Atmospheric Realtime Analysis Products) reanalysis data from 2008 to 2021 in Hubei Province by analyzing indicators such as correlation coefficient,root mean square error (RMSE),and mean bias (MB),and further explores the applicability of the five parts in Hubei Province in different seasons.The results show that:CARAS has good applicability in the Hubei region for daily average and minimum relative humidity,with spatial correlation coefficients of 0.91 and 0.94,respectively; The daily average relative humidity is mainly positive deviation,while the daily minimum and maximum relative humidity are mainly negative deviation; The daily average,daily maximum,and daily minimum relative humidity have good applicability in the southwestern region of Hubei.The applicability of daily average and daily minimum relative humidity (from April to October) is good,while the situation of daily maximum relative humidity is opposite.The daily average relative humidity is most suitable in winter in northeastern Hubei,while in other seasons it is in southwestern Hubei; The minimum daily relative humidity is most suitable in spring and summer in northeastern Hubei; The area with the best applicability of maximum relative humidity in summer is northwest Hubei,and the rest of the seasons are southwest Hubei.The temporal correlation coefficient reaches its maximum at 13:00 (Bejing Time),and the root mean square error is smallest at 10:00.It has a negative deviation from 01:00 to 11:00 and a positive deviation from 12:00 to 23:00.The daily variation characteristics of the three evaluation elements have basically the same trend in each region.The resolution of high-precision CARAS reanalysis data is better than that of current mainstream reanalysis data.Through scientific evaluation of the applicability of CARAS relative humidity,it is hoped to provide scientific reference for the application and correction of CARAS relative humidity data.Overall,the daily average and maximum relative humidity have good applicability in Hubei and can provide data support for meteorological services.

       

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