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    一种堆叠OCF算法在气温订正中的应用研究

    A study on the application of a stacked OCF ensemble method for temperature correction

    • 摘要: 研究提出了一种改进的堆叠最优筛选机器学习模型(REGOCF),旨在提高气温预报的准确性和稳定性。该模型综合考虑了研究区域内地形、下垫面类型、预报员经验等多重因素,降低了多模式间差异性造成的不确定性。对比检验了REGOCF、中国气象局城镇指导预报、ECMWF Thin、国家智能网格及内蒙古自治区睿图区域数值模式2023年12月至2024年11月预报数据。检验结果表明:REGOCF算法在最高气温和最低气温预报中表现优异,与单一模式相比,平均准确率提高了5%~10%,同时预报误差明显减小,异常值数量显著减少,具有较好的实用性。此外,本研究还评估了REGOCF算法在不同季节和气候条件下的表现,进一步验证了算法的鲁棒性和适应性。本研究不仅为气温订正提供了一种创新方法,也为其他气象要素的预报提供了参考经验。

       

      Abstract: This study proposes an improved stacked optimal screening machine learning model (REGOCF) to enhance the accuracy and stability of temperature prediction.The model integrates multiple factors within the study region,including terrain characteristics,underlying surface types,and forecaster experience,thereby reducing uncertainties arising from multi-model discrepancies.A comparative verification was conducted using nearly one year of forecast data from REGOCF,the China Meteorological Administration's Urban Guidance Forecast,ECMWF Thin,the National Intelligent Grid,and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region's RAP (Rapid Refresh) regional numerical model.The verification results demonstrate that the REGOCF algorithm exhibits superior performance in forecasting both maximum and minimum temperatures.Compared with single-model forecasts,the average accuracy improved by 5%-10%,with a marked reduction in forecast errors and a significant decrease in number of outliers,which is highly practical.Additionally,this study assessed the performance of the REGOCF algorithm across different seasons and climatic conditions,further corroborating its robustness and adaptability.This research not only provides an innovative approach to temperature correction but also provides a reference for the forecasting of other meteorological elements.

       

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