高级检索

    2023年浙江省汛期气候趋势预测效果评述及前兆信号分析

    Assessment of the climate prediction and analysis of associated precursors signals of 2023 flood season in Zhejiang Province

    • 摘要: 2023年浙江省汛期(5—9月)高温少雨,高温日数接近常年同期值,台风影响总体偏弱。春季正值“三峰型”拉尼娜事件结束不久,许多前兆海气信号正处于调整演变阶段,给浙江省汛期气候趋势预测带来了较大挑战。利用浙江省国家站观测资料、NCEP-NCAR大气再分析资料、ERSSTv5海表温度资料等,对预测效果及前兆信号进行了复盘分析。预测成功之处在于正确把握了整体高温少雨的趋势,多数年代际和年际信号对降水偏少有较好的指示意义。拉尼娜衰减激发的菲律宾附近异常气旋不仅阻碍了浙江地区的水汽输送,亦使副热带高压易于受到热带系统的影响而发生断裂,使高温日数接近常年同期。预测不足之处:一是对多雨区的位置预测不佳,未能预判出厄尔尼诺的快速发展,以及对影响浙江汛期降水异常空间分布型的前兆信号认识不足,是其重要原因。二是入梅趋势判断有误,这可能与冬、春季信号的影响出现反转有关,未来需加强对春季因子的研判,同时进一步挖掘可信度较高的冬季前兆信号。三是高估了台风的总体影响程度,未能预测出生成台风数量显著偏少是其重要原因,台风生成频数的年代际变化、MJO在西北太平洋地区长时间不活跃等因素可能对生成台风数量显著偏少具有重要作用。

       

      Abstract: The 2023 flood season (May to September) in Zhejiang Province was featured by less precipitation,higher temperature,normal high-temperature days,lighter overall typhoon impact compared to the usual condition.In the spring of 2023,the "triple-peak" La Niña just ended and many oceanic and atmospheric precursory signals were in the stage of adjustment and evolution,yielding a big challenge to the climate prediction of 2023 rainy season.This article conducted a retrospective analysis of the result of climate prediction and associated precursory signals using observational data of Zhejiang Province,atmospheric reanalysis from NCEP-NCAR,sea surface temperature from ERSSTv5,etc.The prediction succeeded in accurately capturing the overall trend of less rainfall and higher temperature.Most decadal and interannual signals provided good indications of less-than-normal rainy season precipitation.The anomalous cyclone in the Philippines stimulated by decaying La Niña not only hindered the water vapor transportation in Zhejiang region,but also contributed to the vulnerability of subtropical high to the influence of tropical systems so that the subtropical high broke apart and resulted in normal high-temperature days.However,there were several shortcomings in the prediction:Poor prediction of the location of heavy rainfall regions.This might be due to the incapability of foreseeing the rapid development of El Niño as well as insufficient understanding of the precursory signals associated with the spatial distribution of precipitation anomaly in Zhejiang province during the rainy season.Incorrect judgment of the Meiyu onset trend.This may be related to the reversal of the impact of winter signals compared to spring signals,indicating the need to enhance the ability to prognose spring factors and explore more winter signals with higher credibility.Overestimation of the total influence of typhoons,possibly attributed to the failure to predict substantially less-than-normal number of typhoons generated in the Northwestern Pacific and the South China Sea,which could presumably be explained by decadal variability of typhoon generation frequency,significantly long period of inactive phase of MJO over the Northwestern Pacific.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回