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    基于多源数据的重庆日平均气温精细化插值方法研究

    Research on refined interpolation method of daily mean temperature in Chongqing based on multi-source data

    • 摘要: 气温是重要的气候资源之一,为获取重庆复杂地形下空间连续的气温数据,利用地形、夜间灯光、FY-2G卫星和气象站点气温观测等多源数据,选择机器学习中的线性回归(Linear Regression,LR)、极限学习机(Extreme Learning Machine,ELM)和随机森林(Random Forest,RF)3种方法建立模型对重庆2022年逐月15日的平均气温进行空间插值和精度验证对比分析。结果表明:经筛选的变量可作为机器学习对重庆日平均气温空间插值的特征变量,RF显著优于其他两种方法,插值平均绝对误差小于0.5 ℃,空间插值结果可靠。平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方根误差(RMSE)和决定系数(R2),RF分别为0.24 ℃、0.34 ℃和0.98,均为最优值。在气温较高的夏季,插值精度较春、秋、冬季差。3种方法插值精度均随着海拔升高而下降。在部分区域特征变量缺失的情况下,3种机器学习方法仍能对气温进行插值。1月、4月、7月和10月的RF插值结果明显优于中国气象局高分辨率陆面数据同化系统的气温产品,空间分辨率也更精细。

       

      Abstract: The temperature is a crucial climatic resource.To obtain spatially continuous temperature data under the complex terrain of Chongqing,this study utilized multi-source data,including topography,nighttime light,FY-2G satellite observations,and meteorological station temperature records.Three machine learning methods Linear Regression (LR),Extreme Learning Machine (ELM),and Random Forest (RF) were employed to establish models for spatially interpolating and validating the daily average temperature on the 15th of each month in 2022 across Chongqing.The results demonstrate:The variables screened in this study can serve as effective feature variables for machine learning-based spatial interpolation of daily average temperature in Chongqing.RF significantly outperformed the other two methods,with an average expected real error of less than 0.5 ℃,indicating reliable spatial interpolation results.In terms of evaluation metrics,Mean Absolute Error (MAE),Root Mean Square Error (RMSE),and Coefficient of Determination (R2),RF achieved the best performance (0.24 ℃,0.34 ℃,and 0.98).However,interpolation accuracy was slightly lower in summer compared to spring,autumn,and winter.The interpolation accuracy of all three methods improved with increasing elevation.All three methods remained effective for temperature interpolation even in regions with missing feature variables.The RF interpolation results for January,April,July,and October were notably superior to the temperature products from the China Meteorological Administration's High-Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRCLDAS),with finer spatial resolution.

       

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