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    基于机器学习的地基云量多阈值识别方法研究

    Study on multi-threshold identification method of ground-based cloud cover using machine learning

    • 摘要: 针对复杂气象场景下地基云量的自动化观测,提出了一种太阳高度—能见度驱动的动态多阈值云量判识方法。基于全国8个区域24个基本气象站2021—2023年190 628张地基云图样本,利用机器学习方法,通过融合地基云图可见光辐射特性、实时气象光学视程及太阳高度角参数,构建自适应多阈值生成模型,突破传统固定阈值法在晨昏、薄云及低能见度场景下的适应性瓶颈,并对多阈值方法进行了验证。结果表明:云天分割阈值随太阳高度角升高而增大,低太阳高度角和高太阳高度角的阈值范围分别为0.95~1.15和1.30~1.45;云天分割阈值随能见度降低而减小,当能见度>10 km或<1 km时,太阳高度角阈值范围分别为1.07~1.45、0.95~1.15,当能见度<500 m时,阈值分割法判识结果失去可靠性。通过交互场景阈值验证和云类差异化验证表明,该判识方法在太阳高度角<10°与低能见度<10 km复杂场景下,云量判识平均绝对误差降至11.3%,较固定阈值法提升22.0%;0~1成、1~3成、3~7成、>7成云量识别准确率分别达93.8%、89.5%、95.3%、93.7%,较现有最优基线(DeepLab V3+)法分别提升3.6、6.8、2.2、2.5个百分点。

       

      Abstract: According the automatic observation of ground-based cloud cover in complex meteorological scenarios,this study proposed a dynamic multi-threshold cloud cover identification method driven by solar altitude and visibility.Based on a database of 190 628 ground-based cloud image samples from 24 representative stations across China from 2021 to 2023,a machine learning approach was employed to construct an adaptive multi-threshold generation model by fusing visible light radiation characteristics of ground-based cloud images,real-time meteorological optical range,and solar altitude angle parameters.This model breaks through the adaptability bottleneck of traditional fixed threshold methods in scenarios such as dawn/dusk,thin clouds,and low visibility.The results show that the cloud-sky segmentation threshold increases with the rise of solar altitude angle,with threshold ranges of 0.95-1.15 and 1.30-1.45 for low and high solar altitude angles,respectively.The cloud-sky segmentation threshold decreases as visibility decreases; when visibility is >10 km or <1 km,the solar altitude angle threshold ranges are 1.07-1.45 and 0.95-1.15,respectively,while the threshold segmentation method loses reliability when visibility is <500 m.Validation through interactive scenario threshold verification and cloud type differentiation verification demonstrates that this identification method reduces the mean absolute error of cloud cover identification to 11.3% in complex scenarios with <10° solar altitude and <10 km visibility,representing a 22.0% improvement over the fixed threshold method.The recognition accuracy rates of cloud cover at 0%-10%,10%-30%,30%-70%,and>70% reach 93.8%,89.5%,95.3%,and 93.7% respectively,which are 3.6%,6.8%,2.2%,and 2.5% higher than those of the existing optimal baseline (DeepLab V3+) method.

       

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