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    探空资料同化频次对城市热岛模拟的影响

    The Impact of Radiosonde Data Assimilation Frequency on Urban Heat Island Simulation

    • 摘要: 探空资料同化可有效提高模式对大气边界层特征的模拟能力,但其同化频次对改善边界层模拟影响仍待研究。本文利用逐3小时加密探空数据开展同化试验,探究探空资料同化频次对城市热岛模拟精度的影响,评估了其对城市热岛、边界层气象特征及气象要素日变化的模拟改善效果。结果表明,随着同化频次增加,城市热岛的空间分布、中心强度及环流形态的模拟效果显著改善,逐3小时循环同化达到最优的模拟准确度和精细程度。未经同化的初始场存在系统性误差,探空资料同化有效纠正模式偏差。逐3小时的同化频次更符合城市地区气象场的强迫时间尺度,能显著改善边界层气象要素的模拟,提高模式模拟城市温度日变化的稳定性和准确性。城区辐合气流对城市热岛空间分布有重要影响,增加同化频次更精准地模拟了辐合气流的位置和强度,改善山风和城市热岛环流对边界层热量传输过程的模拟。探空资料的高频同化在改善城市气象预报和城市热岛模拟上,具有重要的潜力和应用价值。

       

      Abstract: Radiosonde data assimilation can improve the simulation of boundary layer characteristics, but the effect of assimilation frequency on boundary layer simulations still needs further study. This paper uses 3-hourly high-resolution radiosonde data for assimilation experiments to explore how assimilation frequency affects the accuracy of urban heat island (UHI) simulations. It also evaluates improvements in the simulation of UHI, boundary layer meteorological features, and daily variations of meteorological elements. The results show that increasing assimilation frequency significantly improves the simulation of UHI spatial distribution, intensity, and circulation patterns. The 3-hourly assimilation achieves the best accuracy and detail. The initial field without assimilation contains systematic errors, which are corrected by radiosonde data assimilation. The 3-hourly assimilation frequency matches the forcing timescale of urban meteorological fields, improving boundary layer simulations and the accuracy of daily temperature variations. High-frequency assimilation of radiosonde data shows significant potential for improving urban weather forecasting and UHI

       

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