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    基于XGBoost方法的盘锦大气污染物分布特征及影响因素分析

    Characteristics of atmospheric pollutants and its relationship with meteorological factors based on XGBoost method in Panjin

    • 摘要: 利用2023年12月至2024年11月盘锦3个环境监测站6种大气污染物小时浓度和同期平均气温、相对温度、风速等气象数据,基于相关分析、主成分分析、XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting)等方法,分析了盘锦大气污染物的变化特征,探讨了6种大气污染物之间及其与气象因子的关系。结果表明:盘锦各站大气污染物日、月和季浓度变化不同,但变化趋势基本一致;日变化PM2.5、PM10、NO2和CO为双峰型,SO2和O3为单峰型;月变化PM2.5和PM10呈波动变化,NO2和CO为W型,O3为单峰型,SO2为不规则V型;季变化PM2.5和PM10冬春季高、夏秋季低,SO2、NO2和CO冬季高、夏季低,O3为夏季高、冬季低。各站相比,PM2.5、PM10和O3浓度开发区站>兴隆台站>新生街道站,SO2、NO2和CO浓度兴隆台站>开发区站>新生街道站。O3与其他5种大气污染物呈负相关,与NO2的相关性最好,相关系数为-0.57,其他各大气污染物之间均呈正相关,相关系数较高的是CO与NO2的0.76和PM2.5与PM10的0.76。主成分分析表明,第1主成分为CO、NO2和SO2,方差贡献率达59.0%。基于XGBoost和SHAP (Shapley Additive ExPlanations)分析表明,最低气温对PM2.5、SO2、NO2和CO影响最大,平均气温对PM10和O3影响最大。盘锦大气污染以气态污染物为主,气温对各大气污染物影响较大。

       

      Abstract: Based on the hourly concentrations of six atmospheric pollutants from three environmental monitoring stations in Panjin from December 2023 to November 2024, as well as the average temperature, relative temperature, wind speed and other meteorological data during the same period, the characteristics of atmospheric pollutants were analyzed through methods such as correlation analysis, principal component analysis (PCA), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). The relationships among six atmospheric pollutants and with meteorological factors were discussed. The results show that the daily, monthly and seasonal concentrations of atmospheric pollutants at each station in Panjin are different, while their trends are basically the same. The diurnal variations of PM2.5, PM10, NO2 and CO are bimodal, while SO2 and O3 are unimodal. Monthly variations of PM2.5 and PM10 show fluctuating changes, NO2 and CO are W-shaped, O3 is unimodal, and SO2 is irregular V-shaped. Seasonal variations of PM2.5 and PM10 are high in winter and spring and low in summer and autumn; SO2, NO2 and CO are high in winter and low in summer; O3 is high in summer and low in winter. Compared with each station, the concentrations of PM2.5, PM10 and O3 are mostly in the order of Kaifaqu station > Xinglongtai station > Xinshengjiedao Station, while the concentrations of SO2, NO2 and CO are mostly in the order of Xinglongtai station > Kaifaqu station > Xinshengjiedao Station. O3 is negatively correlated with the other five atmospheric pollutants, and its correlation with NO2 is the best, with a correlation coefficient of -0.57. The other atmospheric pollutants are all positively correlated. The higher correlation coefficients are 0.76 between CO and NO2 and 0.76 between PM2.5 and PM10. The first principal components of pollutants are CO, NO2 and SO2, with a variance contribution rate of 59.0%. Analysis based on XGBoost and Shapley Additive ExPlanations (SHAP) indicates that the lowest temperature has the greatest impact on PM2.5, SO2, NO2 and CO, while the average temperature has the greatest impact on PM10 and O3. The atmospheric pollution in Panjin area is mainly gaseous pollutants, and temperature has a significant impact on various atmospheric pollutants.

       

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