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    南方一次高空低槽云系飞机人工增雨数值模拟研究

    Study of a Low-trough type Aircraft Artificial Catalysis Precipitation with numerical simulation in southern China

    • 摘要: 本研究基于中国气象局人工影响天气中心研发的CMA-CPEFS模式,对 2020年8月26日湖南省一次高空低槽云系降水过程的飞机增雨催化试验进行了数值模拟,分析了催化对云水资源及其特征量的影响。研究结果表明:催化后作业目标区域的回波强度增强,降水量整体增加,降水强度和降水范围较催化前有所扩大;催化开始30 分钟后降水开始呈现正向增长趋势,催化开始后2.5~3.5小时降水出现阶段性负增长,3.5小时后出现持续约3小时的稳定正增长;增雨催化开始1小时,催化区湘南云带有增强,云系自西向东移动,持续增强约5小时,其后云带变化不再明显;碘化银催化剂随着天气系统自西向东扩散,垂直方向集中于4~6 km 的范围内,呈现明显的向上传输特征,在上升气流较强的区域,部分碘化银粒子的扩散高度可达 9 km;催化后,碘化银的核化作用使云层内冰相粒子(霰和冰晶)增加、云滴的消耗增强,催化过程促进了水汽的凝结,缩短了水凝物的更新周期,最终使地面降水总量增加,降水效率提升了约10%。试验结果表明此次催化作业过程经过科学设计与实施,实现了预期的增雨目标。

       

      Abstract: The study is based on the CMA-CPEFS model developed by the Weather Modification Center of the China Meteorological Administration. A numerical simulation was conducted on the cloud seeding experiment using aircraft during a low-through cloud system precipitation event in Hunan Province on August 26, 2020, to analyze the impact of seeding on cloud water resources and their macro-physical characteristics. The results indicate that after seeding, the echo intensity in the target area increased, leading to an overall rise in precipitation. Both the intensity and coverage area of precipitation expanded compared to conditions before seeding. A positive growth trend in precipitation emerged 30 minutes after seeding commenced, followed by a phased decrease in growth between 2.5 and 3.5 hours after seeding initiation. Subsequently, a stable positive growth lasting for 3 hours appeared after 3.5 hours. One hour after seeding began, the cloud band over the seeding region intensified in southern Hunan province. The cloud system moved from west to east and continued to strengthen for about 5 hours. Subsequently, the changes in the cloud band became less apparent. The silver iodide catalyst dispersed from west to east along with the weather system, concentrating vertically within an altitude range of 4 to 6 km. Silver iodide exhibited pronounced upward transport characteristics, with some particles diffusing up to altitudes of 9 km in regions of strong updrafts.After seeding, the nucleation effect of silver iodide increased the ice-phase particles (graupel and ice crystals) within the cloud layer and enhanced the depletion of cloud droplets. The catalytic process promoted the condensation of water vapor, shortening the renewal cycle of hydrometeors and ultimately leading to an increase in the total ground precipitation. The precipitation efficiency increased by approximately 10%. The experimental results indicate that the catalytic operation was scientifically designed and implemented, achieving the intended goal of enhancing rainfall.

       

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