Abstract: Against the backdrop of global climate change and rapid urbanization, the utilization and protection of China's climate resources have undergone significant transformations. However, the dynamic trends of climate carrying capacity in the arid regions of northern China remain unclear, posing a serious constraint to ecological protection and high-quality development within the Yellow River Basin. This study takes Baotou City, a typical industrial city in the northern arid region, as a case study. By integrating meteorological observation data and socio-economic statistics from 1994 to 2023, and employing urban climate carrying capacity assessment indicators and models, it evaluates and reveals the dynamic evolution of Baotou's climate carrying capacity over the past three decades. The results indicate that Baotou's climate carrying capacity exhibited a?fluctuating downward trend?from 1994 to 2023, reaching its?peak in 2004?and?trough in 2022. This trend has already?posed a severe threat?to the sustainable development of the city's society and economy. Analysis of sub-indices reveals that the?Climate Natural Capacity?fluctuated relatively stably overall, while both?Urban Climate Pressure and?Coordinated Development Ability increased significantly. However, the?persistent increase in the Extreme Climate Index, compounded by the occurrence of?multiple