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    盛夏东北冷涡日数与初夏热带印度洋海温关联的转折变化

    Abrupt shift in the association between late-summer Northeast China cold vortex days and early-summer tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature

    • 摘要: 利用1979–2021年辽宁省气象局东北冷涡个例日历、ERSST V5海温数据和NCEP/NCAR大气再分析数据,研究了盛夏东北冷涡日数与初夏热带印度洋海温的关联及其稳定性。结果表明:盛夏东北冷涡日数与前期热带印度洋海温在初夏的显著正相关最大,即当初夏热带印度洋海温异常偏高时,盛夏东北冷涡日数易偏多。但这种关联并不稳定,在2004年前后由显著正相关转变为不相关,其原因可能在于盛夏热带印度洋海温和大气对初夏热带印度洋海温的显著响应向东偏移。在1989–2003年,初夏热带印度洋海温暖异常持续到盛夏,激发开尔文波伸入西太平洋,有利于西北太平洋反气旋性环流异常维持。接下来西北太平洋反气旋性环流异常伴随的低层辐散风异常显著向东北亚附近辐合,形成东北亚中低层气旋性环流异常和位势高度负异常,有利于东北冷涡日数增多。在2004–2017年,盛夏热源位置的向东偏移使西北太平洋不存在显著反气旋性环流异常,所以盛夏东北冷涡日数与初夏热带印度洋海温的关联发生减弱变化。

       

      Abstract: Based on the Northeast China cold vortex (NCCV) case calendar provided by the Liaoning Meteorological Bureau, ERSST V5 sea surface temperature data, and NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis dataset from 1979 to 2021, this study examines the association between late-summer NCCV days and early-summer tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature and its temporal stability. Results show that the strongest positive correlation between late-summer NECV days and preceding TIO sea surface temperature occurs in early summer. That is warm early-summer TIO sea surface temperature anomalies tend to be followed by more late-summer NCCV days. However, this linkage is non-stationary and the significant positive correlation becomes statistically insignificant after 2004. The abrupt shift is attributed to an eastward displacement of the late-summer TIO warming and corresponding atmospheric response to the early-summer TIO warming. During 1989-2003, the early-summer TIO warming persists into late summer, exciting eastward-propagating Kelvin waves that reinforced anticyclonic anomalies over the western North Pacific. Low-level divergent flow anomalies associated with the anticyclonic anomalies over the western North Pacific converge markedly over Northeast Asia, inducing the mid–low-tropospheric cyclonic anomalies and negative geopotential height anomalies that increase NCCV days. By contrast, during 2004-2017 the eastward shift of the late-summer heat source precludes significant anticyclonic anomalies over the western North Pacific, thereby weakening the association between late-summer NCCV days and early-summer TIO sea surface temperature.

       

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