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    基于随机森林算法的辽宁省作物根区土壤水分反演技术研究

    Estimation of Root-Zone Soil Moisture for Crops in Liaoning Province Based on Random Forest Algorithm

    • 摘要: 土壤水分是作物生长的基础,根区土壤水分更是作物生长的直接水源,高精度实时、大面积的表层与根区土壤水分监测,对抗旱减灾至关重要。本研究基于FY-3D MERSI数据,采用特征重要性结合递增法进行特征筛选,构建了适用于辽宁省的作物根区(0–50cm)土壤水分反演模型。模型采用随机森林算法进行训练与预测,根区模型在土壤参数、气象、遥感指数数据的基础上引入了表层反演结果作为输入特征之一,进一步提升了模型精度。结果表明:(1)表层土壤水分(SVWC)是模型反演最关键的影响因子,联合土壤性质(容重、田间持水量、凋萎湿度)与气象因子显著提升了模型性能;(2)模型在验证集上表现良好,R2高于0.959,RMSE和MAE分别小于0.009和0.006?cm3/cm3,具备较强的拟合能力与稳定性;(3)2021-2023年不同生育期反演结果R2均值均超过0.80,误差RMSE<0.035?cm3/cm3模型具备较好的时空泛化能力。研究表明,该模型能够实现大范围、时效性强的根区土壤水分估算,可为农业干旱评估与精准灌溉提供科学支撑。

       

      Abstract: Soil moisture is a fundamental determinant of crop growth, with root-zone soil moisture providing the primary and direct water supply for plants. Consequently, high-precision, real-time, and large-scale monitoring of surface and root-zone soil moisture is essential for effective drought monitoring, mitigation, and disaster risk reduction.Based on FY-3D MERSI data, this study develops a crop root-zone (0-50 cm) soil moisture inversion model for Liaoning Province using a feature selection framework that integrates feature importance analysis with a stepwise incremental strategy. A random forest algorithm is employed for model training and prediction. Building upon soil parameters, meteorological factors, and remote sensing indices, the root-zone model further incorporates surface soil moisture inversion results as an additional input feature, resulting in improved model accuracy.The results demonstrate that (1) surface soil volumetric water content (SVWC) is the dominant factor governing soil moisture inversion, and its combination with soil properties (bulk density, field capacity, and wilting point) and meteorological variables leads to a substantial improvement in model performance.(2) The model demonstrates excellent performance on the validation dataset, achieving an R2 greater than 0.959, with RMSE and MAE values lower than 0.009 and 0.006 cm3/cm3, respectively, reflecting strong predictive accuracy and model stability.(3) Across different crop growth stages from 2021 to 2023, the inversion results yield mean R2 values above 0.80 and RMSE values below 0.035 cm3/cm3, indicating good spatiotemporal generalization and robustness of the proposed model.The results indicate that the proposed model enables large-scale and timely estimation of root-zone soil moisture, providing robust scientific support for agricultural drought assessment and precision irrigation.

       

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