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    辽宁夏季铁路断行时空分布特征及降水重现期研究

    Research on the Spatial-Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Summer Railway Disruptions and Precipitation Recurrence Intervals in Liaoning Province

    • 摘要: 利用辽宁地区铁路断行记录,匹配断行前期降水信息,分析铁路断行发生的时间、空间分布规律及其与降水特征的关系,并计算降水重现期。结果表明:辽宁夏季近11年铁路断行共有334次,其年变化趋势与辽宁夏季降水量变化趋势较为一致。断行分布在6月至10月,其中8月的断行发生次数最多。断行发生最多的线路为沈丹线的丹东工务段,其次为新义线和京哈高速线的阜新锦州交界区段。铁路水害断行点位的坡度主要分布在0到4度,随着坡度的增加,频数呈现下降趋势。高程主要分布在300米以内的低高程地区。铁路断行次数与降水量存在显著的正相关,相关系数高达0.86。导致铁路夏季断行的主要降水量级为暴雨和大暴雨,主要降水类型为局地暴雨。将各类地理信息要素进行特征重要性排序,选取排名前四的要素作为聚类因子进行聚类。利用K-means聚类法将辽宁分为三类地理分区,并针对三类分区利用不同时间段内的降雨量分别计算降雨重现期,为铁路夏季防范铁路断行风险提供参考。

       

      Abstract: The time and spatial distribution of railway disconnection and its relationship with precipitation characteristics were analyzed by using the railway disconnection records in Liaoning area and matching the precipitation information in the early stage of disconnection, and the return period of precipitation was calculated. The results show that there are 334 railway outages in Liaoning in the past 11 years, and the annual change trend is consistent with the change trend of summer precipitation in Liaoning. The disconnection was distributed from June to October, and the number of disconnections in August was the highest. The line with the largest number of outages is the Dandong section of the Shendan line, followed by the Fuxin Jinzhou junction section of the Xinyi line and the Jingha high-speed line. The slope of the railway water damage breakpoint is mainly distributed from 0 to 4 degrees. With the increase of the slope, the frequency shows a downward trend. The elevation is mainly distributed in the low elevation area within 300 meters. There is a significant positive correlation between the number of railway outages and precipitation, and the correlation coefficient is as high as 0.86. The main precipitation levels that lead to the disconnection of the railway in summer are rainstorm and heavy rainstorm, and the main precipitation type is local rainstorm. The feature importance of various geographic information elements is sorted, and the top four elements are selected as clustering factors for clustering. The K-means clustering method is used to divide Liaoning into three types of geographical divisions, and the rainfall return period is calculated by using the rainfall in different time periods for the three types of divisions, so as to prevent the railway in summer.

       

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