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    黔东北地区极端气候变化及其对NDVI的影响

    Extreme climate change in northeastern Guizhou region and its impacts on NDVI

    • 摘要: 基于1961—2023年黔东北地区逐日气象数据与2000—2023年NDVI(归一化植被指数)遥感数据,系统分析16个极端气候指数的演变特征及其对NDVI的影响。结果表明:1961—2023年黔东北地区极端气温显著暖化、极端降水持续增多,两类指数空间分异特征明显,且突变多集中于20世纪80年代后,周期特征多以37 a主周期为主导。2000—2023年黔东北地区年NDVI整体呈现波动上升趋势,均值达0.81。TX90p(暖昼日数)、WSDI(暖持续日数)暖指数与NDVI呈显著正相关;而TN10p(冷夜日数)、CSDI(冷持续日数)冷指数与NDVI呈显著负相关。极端降水指数中,除CWD(持续湿润日数)外,其余指数与NDVI以正相关为主。极端气温指数对NDVI的解释力高于极端降水指数,其中TNn(月极端最低气温)和TX90p影响力最强,且极端气候指数间的协同作用显著高于单个指数的影响力。

       

      Abstract: Based on the daily meteorological data (1961-2023) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) remote sensing data (2000-2023) in the northeastern Guizhou region, this study systematically analyzed the evolutionary characteristics of 16 extreme climate indices and their impacts on NDVI. The results showed that: from 1961 to 2023, extreme temperatures in the northeastern Guizhou region warmed significantly and extreme precipitation increased consistently; both types of indices exhibited obvious spatial differentiation characteristics, with most mutations concentrated after the 1980s, and their periodic characteristics were mostly dominated by a main period of 37 a. From 2000 to 2023, the annual NDVI in the northeastern Guizhou region showed an overall fluctuating upward trend, with an average value of 0.81. Warm indices such as TX90p and WSDI had a significant positive correlation with NDVI, while cold indices such as TN10p and CSDI had a significant negative correlation with NDVI. Among the extreme precipitation indices, all indices except CWD were mainly positively correlated with NDVI. The explanatory power of extreme temperature indices on NDVI was higher than that of extreme precipitation indices, among which TNn and TX90p exerted the strongest influences. Furthermore, the synergistic effect among extreme climate indices was significantly higher than that of individual indices.

       

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