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    气候变化背景下河北省地温变化特征分析

    Analysis of the Characteristics of Shallow Ground Temperature Changes in Hebei Province under the Background of Climate Change

    • 摘要: 为分析河北省浅层地温响应气候变化的特征,按照纬度和海拔差异将全省划分为北部(I区)和南部(II区)两个区域,利用1980—2022年河北省个地面气象观测站0~40 cm逐月平均地温资料,采用线性趋势、累积距平和信噪比、变异系数等方法,分析了河北省年、季浅层平均地温的气候变化趋势、突变特点及年际变化的稳定性。绘制了全省各层地温的空间分布,并利用Person相关分析了主要气象要素与各层地温变化的相关性。结果表明:(1)各层年平均地温呈显著的上升趋势,其中表层0cm地温上升的线性倾向率分别为0.495℃/10a(I区)和0.396℃/10a(II区),以1996和2013年为突变年份,近40年总体上呈“冷—平—暖”的变化规律。从季节变化来看,春季地温的增温幅度最大,分别为0.50℃/10a(I区)和0.56℃/10aI区(II区),夏季最小,分别为0.27℃/10a(I区)和0.23℃/10aI区(II区)。(2)从地温变化的波动性来看,各层最高地温均呈显著上升趋势,各层地温变异系数均呈显著的下降趋势且I区平均变异系数高于II区。(3)从分层地温的空间分布来看,全省各分层平均地温在5.8~16.8℃范围变化,呈由北向南的纬向空间分布,北低南高。(4)从地温与气象条件的相关性来看,0cm地温与气温呈极显著正相关,大部分地市的地温与降水、相对湿度和风速呈显著负相关,与日照时数的相关性不强。

       

      Abstract: To analyze the characteristics of shallow ground temperature response to climate change in Hebei Province, the province was divided into two zones: the northern zone (I) and the southern zone(II) based on latitude and altitude differences. Using monthly average ground temperature data from 0-40 cm at ground meteorological observation stations in Hebei Province from 1980 to 2022, linear trends, cumulative anomalies, signal-to-noise ratio, coefficient of variation, and other methods were used to analyze the climate change trends, abrupt changes, and interannual stability of annual and seasonal shallow ground temperature in Hebei Province. The spatial distribution of ground temperature in various layers of the province was plotted, and the correlation between major meteorological elements and ground temperature changes in each layer was analyzed using Person correlation. The results showed that: (1) The annual average ground temperature of each layer showed a significant upward trend, with a linear tendency rate of 0.495 ℃/10a (Zone I) and 0.396 ℃/10a (Zone II) for the increase in surface 0cm ground temperature, respectively. Taking 1996 and 2013 as abrupt change years, the overall trend in the past 40 years was "cold-flat-warm". From the perspective of seasonal changes, the temperature increase in spring is the largest, at 0.50 ℃/10a (Zone I) and 0.56 ℃/10a (Zone II), respectively, while in summer it is the smallest, at 0.27 ℃/10a (Zone I) and 0.23 ℃/10a (Zone II), respectively. (2) From the fluctuation of ground temperature changes, the highest ground temperature in each layer shows a significant upward trend, while the coefficient of variation of ground temperature in each layer shows a significant downward trend, and the average coefficient of variation in Zone I is higher than that in Zone II. (3) From the spatial distribution of stratified ground temperature, the average ground temperature of each stratum in the province varies within the range of 5.8-16.8 ℃, showing a latitudinal spatial distribution from north to south, with lower temperatures in the north and higher temperatures in the south. (4) From the correlation between ground temperature and meteorological conditions, the 0cm ground temperature is significantly positively correlated with temperature. While in most cities, the ground temperature is significantly negatively correlated with precipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed. The correlation with sunshine hours is not strong.

       

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